Poland’s road back from democratic backsliding largely rides on this month’s presidential elections. None of the candidates appear likely to claim at least 50% of the votes in the May 18 election. This means the two top candidates are likely to face a run-off vote on Sunday, June 1.
The next president will be able to either hinder or help the governing coalition’s efforts to address a persistent erosion of democracy. While the role is largely ceremonial because the prime minister serves as Poland’s head of government, the Polish president can veto legislation, or send it to the Constitutional Tribunal for a consultation. These two moves allow the president to largely stymie any legislative efforts. Overturning the presidential veto requires a 60% supermajority, and the Constitutional Tribunal is where bills go to die in Poland.
The current president, Andrzej Duda, is in his second and final term. He’s an ally of the right-wing populist Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość – PiS) party, the party that governed Poland from 2015 to 2023. The European Union and other critics have accused PiS of damaging democracy and eroding the rule of law in Poland, packing the judiciary and undermining its autonomy (including ensuring that the Constitutional Tribunal is loyal to PiS), and attacking judges PiS deemed hostile and immigrants it deemed unworthy. Other moves by PiS include turning state-owned television and radio into propaganda mouthpieces, politicizing the Central Anticorruption Bureau and other independent agencies, and centralizing executive power.
Democracy has suffered
In the 2023 parliamentary elections, Poles voted PiS out of power, and established a liberal opposition government. But Poland’s democratic performance has dropped significantly as a result of the PiS efforts, according to global indices.
Poland is currently governed by a three-party coalition led by the center-right Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska – PO). The coalition’s stated goal has been to reassert Polish democracy by repairing the damage to the judiciary, the media, and women’s reproductive rights. Duda’s term, however, does not end until August 2025, and the governing coalition does not have the seats necessary to overturn his vetoes.
As a result, Duda has been able to block much of the new government’s efforts. He vetoed proposals designed to restore judicial independence and overhaul the state media, along with a bill that would allow the sale of the morning after pill over the counter. Duda has also refused to accept the governing coalition’s nominations of new judges, generals, ambassadors, professors, and government ministers.
A crowded field makes a run-off vote likely
Who wins the presidency, then, will be decisive in determining whether the PO coalition can push through legislation that would restore critical aspects of Polish democracy.
The governing coalition is pinning its hopes on PO’s Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw. Trzaskowski has maintained a lead in public opinion polls, obtaining anywhere from 31% to 36% of support. His main rival is Karol Nawrocki, a PiS affiliate and the head of the Institute of National Remembrance. Nawrocki is currently in second place, polling at 26%. There are 15 other candidates, including Sławomir Mentzen (currently polling in third place), from the right-wing Konfederacja. The crowded field means neither Trzaskowski nor Nawrocki is likely to win enough votes on May 18 to clear the 50% threshold, so a run-off election on June 1 is very likely.
The election has been marred by chaotic debates and political scandals. Trzaskowski may be falling behind. The latest polls suggest explanations for his stagnant support range from the chaos in the debates to Nawrocki transforming himself from an obscure academic into a successful campaigner. Mentzen’s support base seems to be collapsing, adding another twist. Mentzen and Nawrocki have expressed similar skepticism about the European Union and niceties of liberal democracy, so this may shift some voters towards Nawrocki.
Nawrocki, however, has not been helping his campaign recently. He allegedly obtained an apartment illegally, by buying the apartment from an 80-year old man for whom he was the legal guardian. The scandal refuses to go away, despite the protestation of PiS and the candidate himself. Nawrocki also met briefly with U.S. President Donald Trump on May 1, after the National Day of Prayer. Some commentators denounced the photo-op, while others claimed it was an electoral “gamechanger” (or a “gejmczendżer”). Any political benefit of the meeting is cast into doubt by polls that show only 31% of Poles have a positive image of Trump, a steep drop from the 80% approval for the U.S. president in 2022 polls. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk himself has criticized Trump for his “pro-Russian attitude” and “anti-Ukrainian sentiment.”
President Donald J. Trump welcomes Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki to the Oval Office 🇺🇸🇵🇱 pic.twitter.com/EzjPgygMxI
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 2, 2025
Given this balance of power, the presidential elections will decide the course of Polish democracy over the next several years. If Trzaskowski wins, the governing coalition can succeed in its efforts to restore judicial independence, improve relations with the European Union, and strengthen civic rights. If Nawrocki is the new president, we can expect more of the same: a government coalition whose legislative efforts are repeatedly stymied by an avowed supporter of right-wing populism, and someone with little stated desire to support the governing coalition.
Anna Grzymala-Busse (@AnnaGBusse.bsky.social) is Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies at Stanford University.
