As a follow up to Tuesday’s election, “Politico’s Arena”:http://www.politico.com/arena/ is discussing the question of whether Tea Party Conservatism is a help or hazard for Republicans seeking a return to power. Here’s my answer; feel free to add your own in the comments section below:
bq. It’s a hazard. In a two-party system, the party that can position itself closest to the median voter is more likely to win elections. And in the United States, the median voter is a moderate (see figure below). While their may be particular districts and states where the median voter is more to the right or more to the left, at the end of the day the reputation of the national party still matters. Due to the nature of the primary system in this country – lower turnout, more participation by more ideologically extreme party members – the trick to winning elections for Republicans (Democrats) is usually to move to the right (left) in the primaries, and then back to the center in the general election. If the effect of Tea Party conservatism is to make Republican candidates need to move even farther to the right in primaries, then it is – on the aggregate – going to make it harder for the Republicans to win general elections, with NY-23 as Exhibit #1. The way the Democrats came back from the wilderness in the 1990s was to move to the center; it’s hard to imagine Republicans can come back by moving further to the right.
