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- July 31, 2008

The confluence of recent polls and yesterday’s report (below) on where the campaigns are spending their media money makes for some interesting insights into the presidential race.

To me, the most interesting state is Pennsylvania. McCain and the RNC have spent the most money there ($6 million dollars since June 3), but the state just hasn’t become competitive. The new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading by 7 among likely voters. Unless things begin to move quickly in his direction, I would guess that McCain needs to think about writing off the Keystone state. Of course, doing so will only make his route to 270 EVs all the more difficult since NH and MI seem to be the only Kerry states he has a shot at and he’s running even with or behind Obama in several states that Bush won in 2004 (CO, VA, IN, and FL).

Update: More bad news for McCain in PA. The latest Stategic Vision poll has him down by 9 among LVs.