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Squaring the Circle Between Public Opinion and Voting on Taxing the Rich

- April 20, 2011

A “Washington Post Poll”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/most-support-budget-deal-but-oppose-cuts-to-major-programs/2011/04/19/AFK5077D_graphic.html is making waves today for two reasons. First, it shows what John has repeatedly argued on this blog, which is that despite a current fascination with deficit reduction Americans “don’t really want to cut government spending”:https://themonkeycage.org/2011/02/americans_dont_really_want_to_.html, and that this includes “conservatives as well”:https://themonkeycage.org/2010/02/corrected_graph_for_conflicted.html. But today’s Post poll shows that Americans _do_ want to raise taxes on “households making over $250,000/year”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/most-support-budget-deal-but-oppose-cuts-to-major-programs/2011/04/19/AFK5077D_graphic.html, and that this even holds for a “majority of Republicans”:http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/04/large-majority-of-americans-including-most-republicans-support-raising-taxes-on-the-wealthy.php?ref=fpa as well.

So here’s my question: if close to three-quarters of the American population (the “Washington Post poll”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/most-support-budget-deal-but-oppose-cuts-to-major-programs/2011/04/19/AFK5077D_graphic.html has the figure at 72%) then why, as I “noted last week”:https://themonkeycage.org/2011/04/patriotic_millionaires.html, when actually given the chance to vote on imposing an income tax on those earning more than $200,000/year ($400,000/year for couples), did Washington State voters “vote down this proposition by a 2:1 margin”:http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/Results.aspx?RaceTypeCode=M&JurisdictionTypeID=-2&ElectionID=37&ViewMode=Results?

Seems to me there are only 4 plausible explanations:

# Washington State is way more conservative on this issue than the rest of the country.
# Public opinion has change dramatically on this issue in the past five months.
# There is something inherently different about supporting tax increases in principal than voting for them in practice.
# As MC reader “UW” “suggested”:https://themonkeycage.org/2011/04/patriotic_millionaires.html#comments, voters in Washington State interpreted the measure not as a tax on the “upper income earners”:https://themonkeycage.org/2011/04/upper-income_people_still_dont.html, but rather as a Trojan horse for imposing an income tax on everyone down the road.

I think getting the answer to this question correct is pretty important, especially if you are a party that plans to contest the 2012 elections on a platform of doing everything it can to _not_ raise taxes on those earning more than $250,000/year. If the third option is correct, then you might be able to safely ignore the results of this poll, or at least not worry about it undermining support for your party. If the first, second, or fourth is correct, then it might be time to start worrying about contesting a campaign over the issue of tax increases for upper income earners, especially if they are clearly distinguished from tax increases for the rest of population (i.e., not the Trojan horse scenario).