“Matthew Shugart”:http://fruitsandvotes.com/?p=5091:
bq. Well, this projection at “The Mace”:http://themace.ca/?p=209 is certainly attention grabbing: “if an election were held tomorrow, the NDP have a 95.2% chance of winning more seats than the Liberals.” They also show the combined NDP-Liberal seat total as greater than the Conservatives’ (81+73 vs. 131).
bq. Now that would be interesting.
bq. I still am suspicious that the NDP surge, now confirmed in many polls, could be another Cleggmania bounce that will wither. On the other hand, Layton has been around a while, so we can’t say the NDP surge is as much a popular excitement with the unfamiliar, as was the case with Clegg.