Violence against Japanese political figures is not without precedent, but the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe on July 8, days before an upper house election, shocked a nation known for its safety and strict gun control laws.
The longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history, Abe presided over a period of remarkable political stability and decisive lower-house election victories in 2012, 2014 and 2017. Citing health reasons, he resigned in September 2020 amid public criticism of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic — although covid-19-related deaths in Japan were relatively low.
Abe came to office — first serving as prime minister from 2006 to 2007 and then again from 2012 to 2020 — with an ambitious agenda to remake Japan’s economy and role in the world. His namesake “Abenomics” policies sought to reinvigorate Japan’s economy through bold monetary and fiscal stimulus while pursuing structural changes in areas including agriculture, corporate governance, energy, labor markets and women’s employment.
What Shinzo Abe’s assassination means for Japanese politics
Abe championed proactive leadership for Japanese foreign policy, making significant changes to security policy and stepping up support for the liberal international order as its traditional defenders, such as the United States and Britain, retreated. He also took advantage of institutional changes in Japanese politics to stabilize his political rule.
Abe’s predecessors struggled to govern Japan
Japan’s political institutions have undergone significant transitions in the past three decades. In 1994, lower-house electoral changes shifted the incentives of Japanese politicians, placing greater emphasis on broad appeals to the median voter rather than the traditional focus on pork-barrel politics. Administrative restructuring that started in 1998 shifted power from the bureaucracy to politicians. The staff of the cabinet secretariat expanded threefold over the past 20 years, giving the prime minister greater independent capacity to formulate policy.
Until 2012, Japanese leaders struggled to exercise effective leadership under Japan’s new political institutions. Electoral changes in the lower house were not mirrored in the upper house, which made it difficult for parties to control both houses of the Diet, or parliament, while maintaining internal coherence. Governments of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) were hampered alternatively by internecine struggles and divided government.
When Abe assumed office, Japan had seen a revolving door of six prime ministers lasting only about a year each — including Abe’s first term. The only recent prime minister to achieve longevity was Junichiro Koizumi, but his approach — which relied on personal charisma and an orchestrated assault against his own party — was not replicable.
Abe came to office with a model to govern Japan
Abe sought to overcome these problems with three main strategies. First, he strove to maintain strong public support by pivoting to Abenomics growth themes whenever his popularity waned, such as after passing controversial security legislation. His media strategy looked to shape popular narratives by limiting and controlling access to the prime minister, managing scandals quickly with an eye to the news cycle and pressuring critical news outlets to moderate their tone.
Second, Abe used elections as a mechanism to quell internal dissent and impose party discipline. The 2014 election set the tone, as Abe overcame opposition to a postponement of a hike in the consumption tax within his Liberal Democratic Party and the Finance Ministry by calling an election and winning a public mandate. His robust public support, which averaged close to 50 percent, made the threat of snap elections credible.
Third, Abe built on previous institutional changes by concentrating greater authority in the cabinet office and expanding control over personnel decisions in the bureaucracy. He also implemented a variety of practical measures to improve coordination and public messaging, such as the participation of his key lieutenants in the Diet Affairs Committee to coordinate legislative strategies.
Japan’s prime minister is a third-generation politician. That’s more common than you might think.
On some goals, Abe came up short
Abe was unable to achieve his lifelong ambition of amending the Japanese constitution, despite requisite Diet supermajorities. This effort was stymied by lukewarm public support and the reluctance of Komeito, his coalition partner in government. Despite considerable efforts, he could not resolve the North Korean abduction of Japanese nationals or conclude a peace treaty with Russia. He sought to resolve the World War II comfort women issue “finally and irreversibly,” but the issue became globalized, and relations with South Korea continued to deteriorate.
There also were important areas of omission. Despite shifting Japanese public opinion on social issues such as same-sex marriage, dual citizenship and allowing married couples to use separate surnames, the Abe government resisted change. Abe’s policies on climate change were unambitious, despite his green rhetoric. Journalists and the United Nations criticized Abe’s media strategy as compromising press freedom.
Abe also benefited from good fortune, such as the absence of major crises. A weak and divided opposition in an electoral system emphasizing single-member districts gave him a substantial structural advantage. His landslide victories came despite lukewarm public support for the LDP’s policies.
Abe the kingmaker
Abe remained influential after his resignation. He was a key member and leader of the largest political faction of the LDP, which gave him leverage over his successors. His public statements on policy issues often made headlines, and speculation continued that he would eventually seek a return to office.
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Abe’s immediate successor, Yoshihide Suga, was the chief cabinet secretary during Abe’s entire tenure. Suga tackled new issues including digital transformation and charted a more ambitious climate change policy. However, Suga’s public support suffered along with successive coronavirus waves and a scandal-plagued Tokyo Olympics. He ultimately lost the confidence of key LDP power brokers — including Abe — and reluctantly resigned.
Abe played kingmaker in the subsequent LDP leadership election. He shrewdly maneuvered to undercut the initial front-runner, Taro Kono, by forcing a runoff that handed the LDP presidency to Fumio Kishida. Kishida cruised to victory in the October 2021 lower house election and remains popular: Abe probably would have remained an influential figure in Japan’s governing coalition for the foreseeable future.
Abe was no stranger to controversy, and critics raised legitimate concerns about his governance approach. Nonetheless, he oversaw consequential changes that live on and continue to shape Japan’s politics, economy and foreign policy.
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Phillip Y. Lipscy is professor in the political science department and Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto, where he also directs the Centre for the Study of Global Japan. He is also cross-appointed as professor in the faculty of law at the University of Tokyo. He is editor, with Takeo Hoshi, of “The Political Economy of the Abe Government and Abenomics Reforms” (Cambridge University Press, 2021). This article updates a Monkey Cage post published in September 2020.