“Last week on The Monkey Cage”:https://themonkeycage.org/2010/04/hungarian_election_prediction.html “Professor Ken Benoit”:http://www.kenbenoit.net/ predicted the following results for the Hungarian parliamentary election that took place yesterday:
“The actual results?”:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/world/europe/26hungary.html Fidesz: 263, MSzP:59, Jobbik: 47, LMP: 16 (plus one non-partisan candidate made it in; as an aside, the _Wall Street Journal_ has “the wrong number”:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704446704575205470160229254.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines for the LMP). Very impressive!
Skeptics may note that Ken made his prediction after the first round of the election’s results were known, thus making the forecasting job less difficult. True enough, but here are his “predictions from before the first round”:http://nol.hu/belfold/20100409-ez_valami_csoda: FIDESZ: 271, MSzP: 60, Jobbik: 54. Impressive, indeed! And especially so given the complexities of the Hungarian electoral system, which has been called the most complicated in the world.