For many Western observers, Ukraine first appeared on the radar screen during the “Orange Revolution”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_revolution, when the “good guys” overcame massive electoral fraud by means of weeks of cheerful, non-violent street protests that ultimately led to a re-vote which was won by the opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko. (For a brief summary of these events, see “p.538 of this article”:http://homepages.nyu.edu/~jat7/POP_5_3_Tucker.pdf). Yushchenko and his ally during the Orange Revolution, Yulia Tymoshenko, appeared poised to lead Ukraine into a new, democratic era, while the now disgraced Viktor Yanukovych – the erstwhile beneficiary of the original electoral fraud – would be marginalized politically. Reality, however, has been much, much messier, with various alliances between the forces allied behind all of three of these leaders forming and crumbling as the country has lurched from political “crisis to crisis”:http://aei.pitt.edu/8073/01/cp108.pdf.
With presidential elections looming in January 2010, Ukraine has entered another period of potentially dramatic political upheaval. Up until a few days ago, it appeared the Yanukovich’s and Tymoshenko’s political parties would form a new coalition government, partially with the express purpose of turning Ukraine into a parliamentary republic where the president would be elected by the parliament. These talks have now “apparently collapsed”:http://tinyurl.com/kk2o6q (for, among other reasons, Yanukovich’s insistence that the president be at least 50 years old, which would have ruled out Tymoshenko as a candidate). Against this backdrop, I asked noted Ukrainian politics expert “Taras Kuzio”:www.taraskuzio.net to provide some commentary on recent developments to readers of The Monkey Cage. His (very lightly edited) remarks follow:
bq. Many Ukrainian commentators and bloggers have claimed that elections of a president inside a parliament is undemocratic, as discussed in the draft constitution drawn up by the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT) and Party of Regions [Yanukovich’s party] in the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009. Since when? Many democratic countries inside the EU and NATO elect their presidents inside their parliaments. Greece, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic all have variants of electing the head of state not through national elections. Of course these countries are democracies. Former communist countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states have adopted parliamentary systems while all CIS states (except Ukraine and Moldova) have presidential systems. The former have progressed democratically and joined NATO and the EU. The conclusion is simple: parliamentarism equates to democratization and integration with the West. This has long been the conclusion reached by Western political scientists.
bq. The proposition of electing the head of state by parliament is not an undemocratic system. What is wrong (and this is what the Council of Europe¹s Venice Commission said in 2004 and in 2009 ) is that you do not make fundamental changes to the constitution in an election year. All of Ukraine¹s political forces made the mistake of leaving these constitutional changes to this election year and they all understood that the December 2004 changes (introduced in 2006) were poorly crafted in their division of powers that led to conflict between the president and prime minister. In December of 2004 only BYuT [Tymoshenko’s party] voted against the constitutional reforms negotiated by opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko behind the backs of Orange Revolution protesters who saw it as a betrayal. In 2005-2007, BYuT was the only political force calling for a referendum on the reforms. President Yushchenko had a legal obligation following a October 2005 constitutional court ruling to hold a referendum. But, he ignored this.
bq. The Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych demanded that a ceremonial president elected in parliament should have the same (or some reports stated) greater powers than Yushchenko has under the 2006 constitution. These greater powers invested in a ceremonial president were to be over two _guaranteed_ terms as a _transition_ to a ceremonial president. Yanukovych¹s demand of a _guarantee_ of two terms with these _transitional_ extensive powers was unacceptable. As was any notion of extending parliament by two or three years.
[For those with a greater interest in Ukrainian politics, Dr. Kurzio publishes _Ukraine Analyst_ bimonthly except in July and December when monthly issues will be published. Each 8-page issue of _Ukraine Analyst_ is devoted to current politics, international affairs, energy, business and trade. Special and double issues will have 12 pages. Institutional, business and library subscription: $300, Individual subscription: $200, Student subscription $100. Subscribers can access select current and archived back issues of Ukraine Analyst at www.taraskuzio.net.]