On Nov. 1, Israelis went to the polls yet again — marking the fifth election in less than four years. This election saw the return to power of Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, after just one year out of office, and the rise of an alignment between two far-right parties called “Religious Zionism.”
Restoration of “Jewish national pride” featured heavily in Netanyahu’s Likud party campaign as well as the Religious Zionism party’s campaign. The two parties, plus two ultrareligious parties, are expected to form Israel’s next government, a right-wing coalition that claims to have a stable majority in the Israeli parliament. The coalition is likely to push for judicial changes that will undermine Israel’s Supreme Court and save Netanyahu from his corruption trial.
Netanyahu’s victory accentuates his dominance in Israeli politics, and many Israelis worry that it has potentially disturbing implications for Israeli democracy. Are they right?
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In our research with Michal Shamir, Naama Rivlin-Angert, Israel Waismel-Manor and Tamir Sheafer, we find that voters’ appraisals of Netanyahu are connected to their attitudes toward Israel’s democracy. Our analysis of multiple surveys of Israeli voters shows that positive views of Netanyahu — but not of other politicians — are associated with support for illiberal approaches and authoritarian views.
Why would that be?
Are Israel’s elections about democracy — or Netanyahu?
Netanyahu, by far the most dominant figure in Israeli politics in recent years, has served so long as prime minister that Israeli elections have become a referendum on him personally — rather than a vote on substantive issues and party policies. But Israelis have been keeping a close eye on the future of their democracy. According to the Israel National Election Studies (INES) data, following each of the four prior elections, at least half of the Israeli electorate stated that the elections were mostly about Netanyahu. The “future of democracy” ranked as the second-most-common answer when INES asked Israelis what the elections were about.
To explore whether and how Israelis connect Netanyahu and the future of democracy, we utilize the April 2019, March 2020 and March 2021 pre-electoral waves of the INES election studies, with 1,347, 729 and 1,498 adults of voting age, respectively. Tel Aviv University’s B.I. and Lucille Cohen Institute for Public Opinion Research carried out the fieldwork, with the 2019 and 2020 surveys conducted over the phone, and the 2021 study including both phone and online modes. Using this public opinion data, we examine how appraisals of Netanyahu are related to support for democratic values such as equal rights, freedom of speech and commitment to the democratic rules of the game.
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These surveys show that Israelis’ support for democratic values remains stable and even high (for some principles) throughout the three elections: 80 percent are committed to democracy and support political equality, and 60 percent reject authoritarian leadership. In addition, about 50 percent support adherence to the democratic rules of the game and freedom of speech for those who criticize Israel. This is in line with trends dating to the 1980s, which show that much like citizens in other democracies, Israelis strongly support democratic principles, as shown in the figure below.
This support stands in striking contrast to the diminishing public support for parties, the Israeli parliament and government — which has ranged in recent years between 15 and 30 percent.
The personification of democratic values is one way democracy erodes
But this public support for democratic principles only tells part of the story. It is what political scientists term “diffuse support” for democracy. Scholars have argued that this support encompasses a civic culture that constitutes a shared vision of democracy and is paramount in helping democracies survive.
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How does this diffuse support for democratic values square with the sweeping success of the far-right and anti-liberal parties in Israel’s 2022 election?
When we look at citizens’ appraisal of prominent politicians and support for democratic principles, we find that such support erodes when democratic values become personified — namely, attached to and identified with a dominant politician. We show that positive affect for Netanyahu is associated with support for illiberal approaches and authoritarian views, measured by preferences for “strong leadership” and lower commitment to the democratic rules of the game. We find no such relation with respect to Benny Gantz, Netanyahu’s main competitor for the prime minister’s office.
Netanyahu’s dominance and his long-lasting incumbency has led to what other scholars termed “presidentialization,” a scenario in which the entire focus is on one dominant politician heading the country’s executive branch. Our study shows that this does not mean a shift away from issues to individuals. Instead, leaders, especially in a presidentialized political system, may stand for identities, ideas and values. Such personification can bring substantive issues to the forefront, including democracy itself.
Indeed, recent studies, as well as ours, show that political elites in a democracy cannot always be trusted as democracy’s gatekeepers. To the contrary, they may encourage nondemocratic sentiments.
The ramifications of democracy’s personification are not limited to Netanyahu — or Israel. Rather they tap into the broader concerns over a global “crisis of democracy.” While low levels of trust in political institutions are evident in democracies around the world since the 1970s, support for democratic values remained high.
However, the evidence from Israel suggests that key elements of support for democracy may erode even when voters’ democratic support seems high in aggregate. The personification of politics may be a key mechanism by which democracy erodes.
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Clareta Treger (@claretat2) is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Policy, Elections & Representation Lab (PEARL) at University of Toronto.
Liron Lavi (@Liron_Lavi) is an assistant professor at the Department of Political Studies at Bar Ilan University.