Schools around the United States have reopened for in-person instruction — and states and districts are stumbling through an intergovernmental mess. At the district level, several local leaders already have health and safety protocols in place; some have even temporarily closed schools. Meanwhile, some state leaders have lambasted safety measures such as mask mandates — and President Biden has threatened those governors with legal action.
Needless to say, states and districts have been sending mixed signals.
So what influences Americans’ willingness to comply with school-related public safety measures? And does it matter whether they’re hearing from a mayor, governor, or president?
Yes. My research finds that they’re far more likely to comply with orders that come from the president than those that come from governors or mayors. In short, school mandates are entangled in the United States’ federalism problem.
What is the federalism problem?
According to research into the politics of education, the federalism problem emerges from the fact that different levels of government have different stakes in education policy. For instance, the federal government is empowered by the 14th Amendment to ensure that schools are equitable, but states actually provide the constitutional right to education. Meanwhile, state governments often kick decision-making power down to school district administrators or the mayor.
These various sources of policy and power are why mask mandates and bans on those mandates come from so many different directions — meaning that in some places, Americans are receiving competing and even contradictory messages. To understand how that affects compliance, I conducted survey experiments during the pandemic.
Interestingly, the answer varied according to who was in the White House.
How I did my research
I conducted two nationally representative surveys through the research firm Prolific, with 1,273 in people in the first panel and 983 in the second. I conducted the first survey in early August 2020, before the fall 2020 semester, and the second in late January, as the spring 2021 semester began. Within the survey I asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with this statement:
Respondents were then randomly assigned to three groups as they read this: “If the ______ eventually orders that schools open, I will comply with that order.” The blank was filled in with either president, governor, or mayor.
State legislators make big decisions. So why do they get such tiny paychecks?
So whose orders would Americans respect?
Those surveyed responded somewhat differently to government leaders at different levels. For instance, 55 percent were consistently willing to comply with the order from their governor, both in August 2020 and in January, as you can see in the figure below. Meanwhile, in August 2020, 48 percent of respondents were willing to comply with the order from their mayor, but — as the vaccines rolled out and public health prospects looked good — that increased in January to 56 percent.
The biggest change, though, comes from compliance with orders from the president. During the August 2020 survey, while Donald Trump was president, only slightly more than a third of respondents, or 37 percent, were willing to comply with his order. But among respondents surveyed in late January, around the time President Biden was inaugurated, about two-thirds of respondents were willing to comply.
Which factors shape these attitudes?
Before asking whether respondents would comply, the surveys gathered information on a variety of things, including whether someone was personally affected by the coronavirus, either having it themselves or knowing someone who did; which information sources they trusted, and if so, how much, including the news media and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as the president, governor and mayor; and finally, parental status, satisfaction with their school, race, party, ideology and income.
To understand which of these factors had the most impact on their attitudes, I used a statistical technique called “multivariate regression modeling,” which looked at each factor, while holding the others fixed at their overall average. I performed this for both the 2020 and 2021 surveys. Several factors strongly correlated with willingness to comply, no matter which official issued the mandate. First, if someone knew children and was highly concerned that their learning was suffering, they were much more likely to comply with an order. Second, if someone was satisfied with their school district’s quality, they were more likely to comply.
Lastly, political conservatives were more compliant than moderates and liberals. Moreover, individuals who trusted covid-related information from Trump (in 2020 only) were more likely to comply as well. That suggests that conservatives and Trump supporters strongly preferred to see schools reopen — so strongly that it won out over any impulse to resist government mandates.
What does this mean for mask mandates?
Whether Americans comply with mask mandates or mask bans is likely to vary, depending on who issues the order — and on whether the order aligns with the latest public health information. In the surveys, I also asked respondents how much they support a range of public health strategies, including mask mandates. Results show that responses were much like responses about attendance. Mask mandate opposers were more likely to be political conservatives and trusted covid information from Trump in 2020.
However, one key difference could make mask mandate compliance different. Mask mandate supporters were consistently more likely to trust information coming from the CDC. With the CDC emphasizing that masks are needed to protect against the delta surge, more Americans may be likely to comply with school mask mandates, no matter who issues them.
Finally, given what the data says about compliance with school reopening and support for mask mandates, some people are going to comply or defect based on how well they like their own district schools or their own political ideology.
Government mandates, in any direction, will only influence some people, not all.
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Jonathan E. Collins (@ProfJonCollins) is an assistant professor of education, political science and public policy at Brown University.