Home > News > If the primaries (and caucuses) were the general election…
84 views 49 sec 0 Comment

If the primaries (and caucuses) were the general election…

- February 12, 2008

Let’s assume that the turnout in the general election will be proportional to the turnout in the primaries and caucuses. (I know a big assumption. For example, the total turnout in 2004 for Bush and Kerry in NY was around 7.3 million while the turnout in the 2008 NY primaries for Dems and Reps was 2.4 million. There are other assumptions, such as party only primaries, etc. but let’s suspend reality for a second.)

What would the electoral count look like so far? I count 25 states where both Dems and Reps have had either primaries or caucuses. If we just tally up the total turnout for each side, Dems have won 20 of the 25 states. For example, in CA, the Dem candidates received 4 million votes, and Reps 2.3 million. Give the Dems 55 electoral votes. That translates to 240 out of the 311 electoral votes. So the Dems only need 30 more with 25 more states. Looking like a blowout…but of course this is far from reality.

*** The twenty five states are: AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA IL IA MA MI MN MO NV NH NJ NY ND OK SC TN UT. The five won by Reps are: AL AK AZ FL MI (recall Clinton was the only real name on the ballot in MI so that probably depressed turnout for the Dems).

Topics on this page