This is a guest post from political scientist “Jason Roberts”:http://www.unc.edu/~jmr08/UNC/Home.html:
bq. As the 2010 midterm elections approach, most pundits and political scientists are predicting massive Democratic losses of at least 50 seats in the House of Representatives — more than enough to secure a majority for the Republican party. The combination of a bad economy, a relatively unpopular president, an energized Republican party, and numerous well-funded Republican challengers suggests that this is simply not a good year to be a Democrat. Some prognosticators have hedged their bets a bit due to the large number of toss-up seats as well as potential difficulties with reaching voters who are cell-phone only.
bq. However, an overlooked factor that may work in the Democrat’s favor this year is the type of ballot employed. In fact, recent changes in state ballot laws could provide most incumbents with a 2-4% boost on election day.
bq. How can this be true? With the widespread adoption of the Australian or secret ballot around the turn of the twentieth century, states chose the party column form of the ballot, which list all candidates under the label and symbol of their party, or the office bloc form, which lists all candidates under the particular office they are seeking.
bq. Here is a sample party column ballot:
bq. Here is a sample office bloc ballot:
bq. A major consequence of the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) has been that many states upgraded their voting technology and changed their ballot type in the process, with almost all party column states moving to the office bloc ballot. In 2002, 16 states were using the party column ballot; by 2008 only 4 were still using it.
bq. Why could this help Democrats? Most research shows that the ballot type can affect the choices voters make. The office bloc form of the ballot tends to focus the voter’s attention on the individuals in the race, rather than the party. My “research”:http://www.unc.edu/~jmr08/UNC/Working_Papers_files/ballot_type.pdf (pdf) on this for the past five decades suggest that this is particularly helpful for incumbents, as voters are more likely to vote for incumbents, regardless of party, when using the office bloc ballot. The effect bounces around across various election years, but overall the office bloc ballot can provide anywhere from a 2-4 point boost above and beyond the normal incumbent vote.
bq. This could prove to be a huge help to Democrats this year as most of the races that are “in play” are (a) held by Democratic incumbents and (b) thought to be relatively close races. Two caveats are that most current incumbents were elected under the office bloc in 2008, so effect may already be “baked in” and strong partisans are less affected by ballot type than are independents and weak identifiers.
bq. The ballot is certainly not going to save all endangered Democratic incumbents, but if the Democrats find themselves with a House majority on November 3rd, they may have the ballot form to thank!