Here was the question over at “Politico’s Arena”:http://www.politico.com/arena/archive/the-healthcare-mess.html yesterday:
bq. The right ticked off. The left ticked off. A muddle in the middle. How did Obama get into this mess? How does he get out of it?
You can click “here”:http://www.politico.com/arena/archive/the-healthcare-mess.html to see the various responses. In reading the answers, though, I was curious as to how more political scientists, especially those who study the American presidency, the politics of health care reform, or legislative politics more generally, might have responded, so I thought I would throw it out to the readers of The Monkey Cage as well. Is Obama in a mess now? Or is this somehow “typical” of how big policy reforms get made? If he is in a mess, does history or theory suggest any particular ways for him to get out of it?
To kick off the discussion, here was my answer (with the appropriate caveat that in my day job I study mass political behavior in post-communist countries!):
bq. He gets out of it once a bill passes. As soon as something passes, the narrative will switch to how amazing it was that Obama actually pulled off healthcare reform, something that has bedeviled politicians for ages and even stymied the Clinton administration. At that point, the fact that there was opposition on the left and the right will make the success seem that much more impressive, as will the fact that administration has been active on so many fronts at once. No bill, though, and it looks like a failure. So I think that’s why you will probably see increasing flexibility on the part of the administration to make sure they pass something.
bq. And as an aside, didn’t Obama run as a “post-partisan pragmatist”? If so, should we really be shocked that in perhaps the most complicated policy area that exists today, his attempt at reform is alienating the left and the right and constantly evolving? Maybe that’s what post-partisan pragmatism looks like. And maybe, just maybe, that’s the only way you get reform on an issue as difficult as healthcare reform today.
Of course, since I wrote that, the big news story today is that the White House is now considering trying to pass the bill without bipartisan support (see “here”:http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26250.html and “here”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/health/policy/19repubs.html).
Looking forward to your comments and thoughts.