On Sunday, with a record turnout of over 83%, German voters cast their ballots in a snap federal election after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition in December. The election determines the composition of the 630-seat Bundestag – Germany’s primary legislative body. The Bundestag, in turn, selects the next chancellor and forms the government through coalition negotiations.
As expected, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, won about 28.5% of the vote, setting him up to become Germany’s next chancellor. More surprisingly, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 20.8% – the highest result for what is usually classified as a far-right party since World War II – while Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) fell to roughly 16.4%. The final results reflect widespread frustration over Germany’s ongoing recession, surging energy costs, and what many perceive as ineffective or outright harmful immigration policies.
What happened – and the road ahead
Initially, economic concerns dominated the election campaign. But by early 2025, immigration emerged as the top concern for a majority of voters. A deadly attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg, along with other violent incidents involving suspects who are first- or second-generation immigrants, reinforced fears that the government had lost control over Germany’s borders and integration efforts. AfD seized on these anxieties, making immigration the focal point of the election campaign. The CDU – facing pressure from the right – concentrated on toughening its stance on asylum and deportations. Meanwhile, many former SPD voters, frustrated with Scholz’s handling of both immigration and the sluggish economy, abandoned the center-left in search of alternatives.
Germany’s “mixed” electoral system allows voters to cast two ballots: one for a constituency representative and another for a political party. This structure ensures that while individual constituencies elect their own representatives, the overall composition of the Bundestag reflects each party’s national vote share. This approach, however, once again resulted in a highly fragmented parliament. Under this system, each party must also win at least 5% of the national vote to gain representation in the Bundestag. This threshold proved decisive in the 2025 election, as both the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW, with 4.97% of the vote) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP, with 4.33%) fell just short. As a result, neither party secured representation in the Bundestag, leaving the CDU and the SPD as the only viable coalition partners. Despite winning just 45% of the vote combined, CDU and SPD now hold a parliamentary majority, enabling them to form a governing coalition.
The CDU and SPD have ruled out working with AfD. The refusal of mainstream parties to work with AfD stands in contrast to other European countries – such as Sweden and the Netherlands – where successful far-right parties eventually have been invited into government, reshaping national policies from within. But, even in opposition, AfD will certainly be pressuring mainstream parties to take a harder line on border enforcement – ensuring that immigration remains a hot topic.
The rise of AfD and the fall of SPD
AfD, originally founded in 2013 as a Euroskeptic party, successfully pivoted toward a hardline anti-immigration platform during the 2015-2016 refugee crisis. That’s when Germany accepted over 1 million asylum seekers after the civil war in Syria began. Political scientists widely classify AfD as a radical right or far-right populist party, given its extreme nationalist rhetoric and policy positions. Current party leader Alice Weidel describes AfD as a libertarian, conservative party committed to border control, lowering taxes, and reinstating nuclear power. However, many analysts maintain that AfD’s explicit ties to neo-Nazi groups and rhetoric reminiscent of Nazi-era propaganda place it closer to a quasi-fascist movement.
In recent years, AfD has steadily drawn support from disaffected former SPD voters who feel abandoned by traditional parties on immigration. AfD now commands a broad base of voters frustrated by rising immigration as people from Muslim-majority countries seek political asylum. The post-pandemic cost-of-living crisis and growing skepticism over Germany’s military aid to Ukraine also fueled support for AfD. Recent endorsements of AfD by U.S. officials such as Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance also made global headlines, though the practical effects of their backing remain uncertain.
Meanwhile, SPD’s poor performance underscores the German government’s long struggle to stabilize energy prices, rein in inflation, and restore public trust in immigration policy. Scholz’s approach to military aid for Ukraine further divided his party and coalition. Some voters saw Scholz as too hesitant, while others feared the conflict would escalate beyond Ukraine. Despite holding the chancellorship until this election, the SPD clearly failed to convince voters it had a credible plan to address immigration, economic recovery, or the mounting pressures from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and intensifying manufacturing competition with China.
What do German voters really want?
Germany, historically a country of emigrants, became a major migrant destination in the postwar era. Guest worker programs in the 1960s, for instance, recruited hundreds of thousands of Turkish workers – many of whom later became German citizens. More recently, Germany admitted an estimated 1 million Syrians fleeing civil war in 2015-2016, and more than 1.2 million Ukrainians seeking safety after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of their country. However, public skepticism toward immigration has remained higher in Germany than in other European countries. Anti-immigrant campaigns have grown even more negative in recent years, even if these fall short of outright public backlash.
This concern is not solely the result of media coverage or right-wing rhetoric – the anti-immigrant opinions also reflect real challenges associated with absorbing large numbers of vulnerable humanitarian immigrants. These challenges range from fiscal burdens and housing shortages to cultural clashes and security risks. High-profile crimes involving first- and second-generation immigrants have deepened concerns about integration issues and racism, fueling both anti- and pro-immigration protests across the country. Research suggests these anxieties, especially when voters rank them as their highest priority, will remain a crucial issue in German politics and shape future elections.
Germany’s immigration divisions mirror broader trends in rich democracies: While some voters are categorically anti-immigration and others support it on humanitarian grounds, most Germans support or oppose immigration conditionally – evaluating immigration based on the perceived economic and social benefits to Germany. In fact, recent research indicates a broad and detailed agreement among German voters on the need for well-regulated immigration with stricter integration and naturalization requirements, alongside support for allowing more skilled workers to come to Germany. In other words, as in other countries, Germany’s immigration debate isn’t simply about “open vs. closed” borders but about ensuring that immigration is demonstrably beneficial to society.
Concerns about immigration won’t go away until government policies change
The AfD now claims 152 seats in the Bundestag, second only to the CSU, with 208 seats. But to prevent further AfD gains in future elections, the CDU and SPD will have to do more than reframe the immigration debate – they’ll need to deliver visible results. Some of the German government’s recent immigration policy changes seem a good start. The Skilled Immigration Act, for instance, introduced an “opportunity card” to attract non-E.U. professionals. And the new citizenship law, which allows dual citizenship, should help boost long-term integration of immigrants into German society. However, most new arrivals in Germany continue to enter through asylum programs rather than regular work-based channels, reinforcing voters’ concerns that the immigration system is not aligned with what many see as Germany’s needs.
German business leaders stress that the country needs more workers to counter a declining population and fill shortages in key industries like health care and manufacturing. But many voters remain unconvinced that current policies are benefiting the country. A recent survey of leading economists similarly found broad uncertainty over whether Germany’s immigration model is delivering its intended economic benefits. For immigration to gain broader public acceptance, the government will have to find a middle ground, balancing labor market and integration needs with stronger border enforcement and immigration controls.
Beyond immigration, CDU’s strong showing suggests the party attracted voters concerned about broader security challenges in Europe. The sudden reversal of U.S. support for Ukraine, for instance, no doubt left many Germans worried about European defense policy. With Friedrich Merz as chancellor and SPD’s Boris Pistorius expected to stay in a key cabinet role, Germany is now likely to step up military aid to Ukraine, a shift welcomed by Kyiv. But if the CDU and SPD fail to address both security and immigration effectively, support for the AfD may continue, further reshaping German politics in the years ahead.
Alex Kustov is a 2024-2025 Good Authority fellow.
