This week, as pro-democracy protesters faced off against security forces, Themba Masuku — acting prime minister of eSwatini, formerly known as Swaziland — denied reports that King Mswati III, Africa’s last absolute monarch, had fled his country.
But Masuku would have a hard time denying that eSwatini’s citizens — those watching anxiously from their homes as well as those demonstrating in the streets — are frustrated with their country’s political system.
By Tuesday night, the government had imposed a curfew to interrupt the protests. Security forces had used tear gas and live rounds to disperse protesters and looters targeting businesses connected to Mswati and the extended royal family. The whereabouts of the king and Queen Mother Ntfombi were unknown, though the prime minister said the king was still in the country and in charge.
The turmoil in this tiny mountain kingdom follows days of youth protests calling for constitutional reforms, including the legalization of political parties, the right to elect a prime minister who is accountable to the people, as well as better public services and an end to police brutality. The most intense confrontations erupted after the government refused to allow citizens to deliver petitions to parliament.
But while mostly youthful protesters are leading the charge in the streets, ordinary citizens are dissatisfied, as well. That’s what Afrobarometer found in a nationally representative, in-person survey with 1,200 citizens in eSwatini in March and April. (All question wording and more details on the survey are available here.) Increasingly, citizens believe they are getting much less democracy than they want.
Citizens want democratic practices
In a country where the constitution vests control over all state institutions in the king, only half (49 percent) of citizens say democracy is always preferable to any other form of government. That’s six percentage points higher than it was in 2018. The rest are either indifferent (19 percent); think a nondemocratic government can be preferable in some circumstances (26 percent); or don’t know (6 percent).
But most citizens reject alternatives to democracy, including being ruled by the king (83 percent), military rule (90 percent), one-man rule (87 percent) and one-party rule (67 percent).
Complete survey question texts may be found in the Round 8 questionnaire for eSwatini on the Afrobarometer website.
Citizens of eSwatini strongly support key elements of democratic governance. More than seven in 10 want parliamentary and judicial oversight over the prime minister (74 percent and 79 percent, respectively), while two-thirds (65 percent) prefer an accountable government to an efficient one. Six in 10 endorse elections as the best way to choose leaders (58 percent) and believe that the country needs numerous political parties — something that is currently banned — to ensure citizens have real choices in who governs them (59 percent).
Africans find it hard to learn what their governments are up to. No wonder they suspect corruption.
Neither democratic nor free
The U.S.-based pro-democracy think tank Freedom House rates eSwatini as “not free.” The government is noted for gagging opposition and civic activists and labeling critics as terrorists or seditionists. Because it frequently persecutes journalists who write unflattering reports about the kingdom, in 2020, Reporters Without Borders ranked the eSwatini 141st out of 180 countries in media freedom. The government has also introduced a social media bill that, if passed, could suppress freedom of expression for social media users, bloggers and digital media houses.
Constraints on personal freedoms are not new in the country. In its 2015 survey, Afrobarometer found that only about one in 20 respondents said they felt “completely free” to join any political organization they wanted, compared with an average of 58 percent across 36 surveyed countries on the continent.
But the latest Afrobarometer interviews reflect citizens’ perception of a low and dwindling supply of democracy. Only about a quarter (27 percent) of respondents describe the country as “a full democracy” or “a democracy with minor problems,” a substantial decline from 39 percent in 2018. Far fewer (16 percent) are satisfied with the way democracy works in the country, down from an already meager 28 percent in 2015 and 2018.
Only about one-third (36 percent) of citizens say they are “somewhat” or “completely” free to say what they think, a sharp decline from 2018 (57 percent). And three-fourths (76 percent) of citizens say they “often” or “always” have to be careful about what they say, a significant increase compared with 2018 (64 percent).
Complete survey question texts may be found on the Afrobarometer’s website.
Dwindling trust in leaders
Perhaps the most striking sign of citizens’ discontent is their plummeting trust in the country’s leaders. Among key public officials, public trust has declined most steeply for the king, often criticized for an extravagant lifestyle while a majority of citizens live below the national poverty line. Since 2015, citizens’ trust in the king has dropped by a remarkable 29 percentage points: Just half (50 percent) of people say they trust the king “somewhat” or “a lot,” which places him lower than the prime minister in public esteem.
Trust in local government councilors has dropped by half (from 47 percent to 22 percent) since 2015, while trust in traditional leaders and members of Parliament has weakened by 14 and 6 percentage points, respectively. Only trust in the prime minister has rebounded after declining between 2015 and 2018, though it’s still just a lukewarm 55 percent.
Percent of respondents who said they trust these leaders “somewhat” or “a lot.”
Citizens who don’t trust their leaders may not trust them to make necessary changes, either. Whatever ordinary people think of the events unfolding on their streets, they appear to be looking for something more democratic than the status quo.
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Sibusiso Nkomo (@SibusisoNkomo) is head of communications for Afrobarometer.
Josephine Appiah-Nyamekye Sanny (@JAppiahNyamekye) is knowledge translation manager for Afrobarometer.