Have you entered a vaccine sweepstakes? If you were vaccinated and live in Los Angeles County, you had a chance to win season tickets to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Some states have cash lotteries for those who have been vaccinated. New York, Delaware and others are offering lotteries for college tuition, while West Virginians could win custom rifles.
It’s all part of the latest government push to vaccinate more people. While many people raced to get their doses when they were first available, demand has dropped. About 46 percent of Americans are fully vaccinated, but the number of vaccine doses administered daily started declining in mid-April and has bumped around at a much lower rate since then. Public health experts say that unless more individuals get vaccinated, the country will not reach herd immunity and will remain vulnerable to new variants of the coronavirus. Enter the need for vaccine sweepstakes.
Our research suggests that incentives are probably needed to boost vaccine uptake. Early in the pandemic, people responded to information about future peaks in coronavirus cases with greater fear and sadness, which made them more inclined to protect themselves through things such as mask-wearing and social distancing, although that reaction weakened as the pandemic went on, especially among Republicans. Now that cases have dramatically declined and projections show that they will probably continue to trend downward, Americans are less anxious. Incentives may help persuade more to get vaccinated.
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How we did our research
Since the pandemic began, many Americans have made looking up current and predicted case counts their daily ritual. Last spring, we wanted to know whether reading about coronavirus cases rising would prompt higher levels of fear, anxiety and sadness.
Political science research shows that, when individuals feel greater anxiety about a threatening environment, they are more inclined to seek protection, engage in protective behaviors and support defensive policies. This means that the coronavirus should have made them more inclined to wear masks, stay six feet apart from others, get vaccinated and support policies that would curb the virus’s spread.
To see whether that was true, in April, June and August 2020, we fielded surveys on Lucid’s Fulcrum platform, surveying 5,000-person samples weighted to be demographically representative of the United States. In each survey, individuals were randomly assigned to one of three groups. The first group answered questions after reading nothing in advance. Before answering questions, the second group read a fictional write-up that projected a fall peak in coronavirus cases, while the third group read about a projected spring peak. For example, one group read: “While no one can be certain how the COVID-19 outbreak will progress in the United States, one well-respected team of scientists at a leading university has projected that if social distancing measures are widely adopted now but are lifted during the early fall, a new surge in cases will come and the effects of the virus will reach their peak in November or December.”
All respondents were then asked about how they felt at that moment; whether they were likely to practice social distancing, wear masks and more to protect themselves from the virus; and whether they supported government policies to address the pandemic.
Reading about potential spikes prompted fear, sadness and a desire to protect oneself
Respondents in the second and third groups — those who read projections about a coming peak in cases — were more likely to feel higher levels of fear and sadness than were those who did not read. That was especially true earlier in the spring, as the pandemic was beginning, and the effects diminished over time. We measured fear on a scale of 0 to 15 points by combining answers to questions about whether people felt worried, anxious or afraid.
We also found important differences by whether someone identified with or leaned toward Democrats, Republicans or neither. During our April 2020 survey, all partisan groups reacted to projections of future case spikes with greater fear than did the control group. However, by August, only Democrats reacted with greater fear. As the pandemic became politicized, the information no longer moved Republicans. We found the same patterns for feelings of sadness.
Why are emotional reactions important? Those who said they felt more fear and sadness from reading about predicted coronavirus spikes were more likely to say they would protect themselves from the virus by doing such things as mask-wearing, regular hand-washing and staying six feet apart from others. Although we did not ask about getting a vaccine — none were yet approved — we would expect people to respond similarly. Respondents who felt more fear and sadness after reading about future peaks were also more likely to support government policies to address the pandemic, such as shelter-in-place orders and free coronavirus testing.
By late summer 2020, Republican respondents who read projections of a fall coronavirus peak were less likely to say they felt the types of fear and sadness that push people to protect themselves. Given this finding, it’s no surprise that vaccination rates are lower in U.S. counties with higher concentrations of Republicans. In a survey, 41 percent of Republicans reported not planning to get vaccinated. As cases decline and even fewer people know someone suffering from the virus, Republicans may need new motivations for getting vaccinated.
How do you persuade skeptics to get vaccinated? Trust matters more than information.
What can motivate vaccine laggards?
With Americans less likely to be motivated by fear or sadness now, it’s no wonder governments are offering incentives to vaccinations. Our research suggests that positive reinforcements, such as lotteries, free beer or even marijuana, are especially useful — even if it makes public health look like a game show.
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Jennifer Merolla (@MerollaJenn) is a professor of political science at the University of California at Riverside.
Zoe Nemerever (@ZoeNemerever) will be an assistant professor of political science at Texas Tech University, beginning fall 2021.
Seth Hill (@seth_j_hill) is an associate professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego.
Thad Kousser (@ThadKousser) is a professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego.
Mackenzie Lockhart (@lockhartm) is a PhD candidate in political science at the University of California at San Diego.
Mindy Romero (@MindySRomero) is a research assistant professor at the University of Southern California.