Last week, an Israeli foreign ministry envoy said war with Iran is “inevitable” – and made a bold claim that the U.S. should strike now to defeat Iran. Statements like this have renewed fears that a series of cascading attacks between Iran and Israel will escalate into a broader regional war.
On July 31, 2024, one of Hamas’s top leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran, where he was attending the inauguration of Iran’s newly elected president. Israel did not claim responsibility for the killing, but both Iran and Hamas blame the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for planting a bomb that killed the Hamas leader. A few days earlier, an Israeli missile strike killed Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in a Beirut suburb. That attack was in retaliation for Hezbollah’s July 27 missile strike on an Israeli-controlled town that killed 12 children and teens.
Is a ceasefire possible in Gaza?
Mediators from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar met in Cairo this week, hoping to end the war in Gaza and defuse Israel-Iran tensions. For some, the ceasefire negotiations are the last chance to avoid a widespread conflict. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, speaking before a meeting with Netanyahu, warned that the talks are “probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a cease-fire, and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security.” Others – especially in the Israeli government – disagree, arguing that halting operations before Hamas is destroyed will only embolden the enemy. Some Israeli officials even recommend Israel expand the conflict, and take the opportunity to weaken other foes, such as Hezbollah to the north.
To political scientists, the debate over a ceasefire reflects a significant question: Do wars result from spirals of conflict, or from failed deterrence? These theoretical models provide diametrically opposed predictions about conflict escalation in the Middle East.
This is a moment where leaders need to read each other’s signals carefully. Iran and Hezbollah have threatened retaliation, for example – will all parties in this conflict remain wary of further escalation? Opponents on all sides need to accept that their strategies may have unanticipated consequences, including an inadvertent spiral toward war.
For a deeper dive into what escalates conflicts – and how countries can rein in tensions – please see our explainer, “Good to Know: The spiral vs. deterrence model in international relations.”
Stay up to date on all things politics and political science. Sign up for Good Authority’s weekly newsletter by entering your email address in the box below.
.jpg){kind=link}