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Crappy Interpretations from Focus Groups, Volume 427: Independents and Obama Approval

- July 7, 2010

Amy Walter:

bq. A series of focus groups in five states conducted last month for the conservative nonprofit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven’t abandoned him completely. The same can’t be said of their feelings for congressional Democrats.

bq. In analyzing one such group in Orlando, GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen concluded that it was two issues, health care and BP’s oil spill, that ultimately soured these independent voters on Obama. On health care, van Lohuizen blames the process of the debate more than the substance for turning off independents. As for BP, voters are disappointed that they “don’t see strong leadership” from the president.

Ah, focus groups. What can’t they tell you? In this case, the truth. This is the percent of independents who support Obama, courtesy of Gallup’s weekly data, with a smoothed trend line:

Quite a roller coaster ride, eh? Yes, ladies and gentlemen, watch in amazement as independents “sour” on Obama during the health care debate. The percent who approved of him at the beginning of September 2009 was 46%. During the week he signed the bill it was…45%!

And how about that oil spill? Since the oil spill, Obama’s approval among independents is down by a whopping 4 points. Sour, indeed!

Someone just shoot me now.