Last week, protests broke out in Burkina Faso, targeting both France and ECOWAS, West Africa’s regional bloc. ECOWAS — the Economic Community of West Africa, representing its 15 member states — has been pushing for the country’s return to civilian rule after a coup in January.
A further coup on Sept. 30 placed Ibrahim Traore in charge. Traore claimed the power grab was necessary to deal with the country’s jihadist insurgency. The country’s military and civilian leaders are now holding talks to appoint an interim president and reach an agreement on a democratic transition timeline.
While Traore welcomed the West African envoys, many of his supporters did not. Some protesters shouted that ECOWAS should stay out of Burkina Faso’s internal affairs. The protests against ECOWAS are not the first in the region. Earlier this year, Malians took to the streets to protest sanctions that ECOWAS had imposed after the country delayed elections. Both of these recent protests are part of a broader current of criticism directed at the regional organization, with some even arguing that ECOWAS faces a crisis of credibility.
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ECOWAS has demonstrated its strengths
But academic research on ECOWAS and public opinion data from West Africa tell a different story. Our research with David Cunningham has found that ECOWAS has been effective at reducing violence in the region, especially when it prioritizes its diplomatic capabilities like mediation or fact-finding missions.
The recent protests against ECOWAS appear to be inspired by recent economic sanctions — but sanctions are only one tool of many that ECOWAS has at its disposal. ECOWAS typically addresses the region’s challenges through information sharing and diplomatic pressure like condemnations or threats. For example, ECOWAS helped resolve a 2016 crisis in The Gambia without the imposition of sanctions. Instead, the organization appointed a mediation team, conducted ongoing shuttle diplomacy, and issued several threats of escalation to military action.
Jubilation on the streets as Gambia verges on a new democratic era
What gives ECOWAS this level of influence over regional conflicts? A shared identity within the region that increases trust and buy-in from the people engaged in conflict is one factor helping to make ECOWAS’ tools effective. That means ECOWAS is able to leverage their legitimacy in the region to encourage peace.
Public opinion is positive on ECOWAS
Public opinion data recently collected by the Afrobarometer suggest that many within the region think favorably toward ECOWAS — and indicate high levels of support for the organization’s efforts. Results from 15,998 face-to-face interviews in 13 West African countries in 2019-2021 indicate that most West Africans in member states view ECOWAS positively. In Burkina Faso in particular, less than a quarter of respondents in 2021 reported either neutral or negative views of ECOWAS.
Additionally, the public opinion data over time reveals a substantial increase in West Africans’ favorable feelings toward ECOWAS over the past decade. This suggests that the group’s legitimacy has grown stronger in recent years, despite ECOWAS facing tough challenges. Comparing survey responses in 2008 to the survey responses in 2019-2021, the Afrobarometer results suggest that negative attitudes toward ECOWAS have dropped, from around 30 percent of respondents in 2008 to around 14 percent in the latest survey wave.
But ECOWAS faces a number of threats
Despite research that underlines the organization’s effectiveness and legitimacy, ECOWAS is up against a number of challenges. ECOWAS’ structure — which places country leaders at the helm of the group — limits the organization’s ability to hold the region’s leaders accountable. While the organization’s goals are supporting democracy and good governance, ECOWAS has struggled to address issues of democratic backsliding, because of these limits.
Critics assert that ECOWAS, at times, has applied rules and principles unevenly. And a 2015 proposal to require countries in the region to adopt term limits ultimately failed due to opposition from their member states’ leaders — many of whom have been taking measures to extend their time in office.
Don’t expect regional organizations to rein in coups
ECOWAS has also struggled to respond to a recent spate of military takeovers in Mali, Niger, Guinea and Burkina Faso. ECOWAS’s response has generally been to suspend countries’ membership and enact sanctions. But sometimes these measures lead those who perceive sanctions to be attacks on a country’s citizens, rather than military leaders, to take to the streets. And these sanctions do not appear to have had any sway over the military governments. Ultimately, ECOWAS removed the sanctions.
Can ECOWAS replicate past successes?
What explains West Africans’ overwhelmingly positive perceptions of ECOWAS in the face of such challenges? Many West Africans may be thinking about ECOWAS’ previous successes in the region, such as the organization’s military intervention in Liberia in 1990, the reversal of a military coup in Côte d’Ivoire in 2015, and success in convincing Gambian President Yahya Jammeh to step down after he lost the 2016 election.
Moving forward, as ECOWAS continues to face challenges to its authority and its mission, it’s unclear how public opinion might shift. Will West Africans continue to view ECOWAS in a positive light — as a bulwark against democratic backsliding? It’s also possible, in light of ECOWAS’ struggle to hold governments in the region accountable, that perceptions could sour of the organization and its effectiveness.
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Jori Breslawski (@BreslawskiJori) is a senior lecturer of political science at Tel Aviv University.
Madeline Fleishman (@m_fleishman) is a PhD student at the University of Maryland, College Park.