On Monday evening, the people of Burkina Faso were met with what has become a telltale sign of a coup — a group of soldiers in fatigues appearing on the national television station. By this point the statement of a military takeover by a group calling itself the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration (MPSR) did not come as a surprise to most, given the significant signs of military unrest in the previous 36 hours.
Burkina Faso has one of the highest coup and mutiny rates on the continent, giving many citizens a sense of deja vu this week. The revolt came in the midst of the country’s struggle to combat attacks by Islamist armed groups. Growing instability has created a humanitarian crisis. The United Nations reports that 1 in 5 Burkinabe are in need of humanitarian assistance.
While overshadowed by the coup announcement, the mutiny on the day before may provide important insights into the dynamics behind the overthrow — and what might come next. Widespread morale issues may prove to be one of the junta’s largest challenges.
Soldiers made their demands
On Sunday morning, observers reported heavy gunfire at several bases in the capital, Ouagadougou, and in the northern cities of Kaya and Ouahigouya.
Military mutineers gave a journalist their list of demands: better support, more troops and training for their fight against terrorism; changes to deployment procedures; improved support for injured soldiers and families of deceased soldiers; and the replacement of intelligence and military chiefs. It is unclear if there were any negotiations with the government about these demands. By the next day, the president was detained.
These demands, like most presented by mutineers, are very specific to conditions and life in the armed forces. Many speak to basic concerns over soldiers’ safety and the well-being of their families.
Learning from past mutinies
The quick escalation from a mutiny with specific demands to the overthrow of a government is a rarity. My book, “Soldiers in Revolt: Army Mutinies in Africa,” shows that the vast majority of mutinies do not expand to include bids for political power. However, there is a pattern of combat-related complaints quickly escalating.
Mutineers requesting salary increases or improved housing may be more willing to negotiate over time — while soldiers treat grievances around combat issues with a strong sense of urgency. A similar escalation from combat grievances to coup occurred in Mali (2012) and Sierra Leone (1992). These examples also pose a warning. Both countries saw conflict increase and further coups following the combat-related revolts.
The scale of the initial mutinies in Burkina Faso suggests soldiers’ grievances are widespread, spanning multiple units, services and geographic regions. This may differentiate this week’s events from other, more elitist coups where the leaders reflect only the frustrations of a small circle of officers.
What has dampened morale?
Some Sahel countries have been battling Islamist militants for over a decade. Burkina Faso’s experience is more recent, and the clashes have increased rapidly over the last six years. ACLED data shows a sharp spike in fatalities from armed clashes in Burkina Faso in 2019 and 2020, rising over 200 percent since 2018.
Burkina Faso’s armed forces have been in the spotlight for not only struggling to contain the threat but for contributing to many of civilian fatalities, according to human rights organizations. The government denies this claim. Growing instability has led to controversial government decisions to train and equip civilian volunteers and local vigilante groups to support the battle against Islamist militants.
While the overall number of conflict fatalities decreased in 2021, Burkinabe armed forces endured significant defeats. In November, militants killed 49 gendarmes and four civilians at a camp in Inata — Burkina Faso’s largest single loss of security forces in its battle against Islamic insurgents. The tragedy caused further outrage when the public learned that the base had run out of food, and gendarmes had to slaughter animals to survive.
The Inata attack touched off senior personnel changes, including the promotion of Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Damiba, who later emerged as the MPSR leader. It also laid bare some of the dire conditions that were probably at the root of the mutineers’ demands.
While battling insurgency within its borders, Burkinabe troops are also deployed abroad. Nearly 900 troops serve as peacekeepers in the MINUSMA mission in Mali. Here too, Burkina Faso has seen troop fatalities on what many consider a particularly dangerous U.N. mission. The 25 Burkinabe MINUSMA fatalities amount to more than all of the combined fatalities from Burkina Faso’s other peacekeeping deployments.
As part of a project on returned peacekeepers, our research team has been interviewing veteran peacekeepers in Burkina Faso over the past several months. A common observation from soldiers who have recently returned from MINUSMA was how much better the pay and support structures are when deployed to neighboring Mali than when deployed within their own borders. For these soldiers, the discrepancies they experienced between the U.N. mission and conditions at home fed into generalized low morale.
The armed forces face a difficult path
In Burkina Faso, expectations for the new junta among ordinary troops will be high. But it’s not clear that morale and conditions for the armed forces will necessarily improve under military leadership. There’s a high chance that the junta will prioritize international engagements given the range of multinational counterterrorism missions operating in the Sahel and the transnational nature of the threat.
And it’s uncertain if — or how — having the military in control will change the overall military strategy against militants. Many of the mutineers’ initial demands, like better training and more troops, will take time in an environment where the overall security situation may continue to deteriorate quickly.
Stakes are high, as further military dissatisfaction risks subsequent revolts and may decrease troops’ ability or willingness to counter Islamist groups. Ultimately, the burden of rising instability will probably continue to fall on civilian populations. While the coup makers may have gained momentum from dissatisfaction within the ranks, reversing morale issues will be one of their most difficult tasks.
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Maggie Dwyer (@MagDwyer) is a lecturer in African studies and international development in the School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh. She is the author of “Soldiers in Revolt: Army Mutinies in Africa” (Hurst Publishing, 2017).