British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is refusing to sack his chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, after Cummings secretly broke lockdown regulations. Cummings traveled 240 miles with his spouse to Northern England, to stay with family after she developed symptoms of coronavirus, reportedly before he, too, became symptomatic. When two British newspapers revealed this, political furor broke out in the United Kingdom. Johnson and senior ministers in the Conservative government initially backed Cummings. Then, more revelations emerged, suggesting Cummings had visited a nearby beauty spot while convalescing, and contrary to government claims, the police had received a tip off and called to his family home. Now, it seems Johnson is still backing Cummings, but other Conservatives are declining to offer their support. Conservative politicians are being bombarded by angry messages.
So why have Cummings’s actions provoked such outrage, and why is Johnson refusing to force him out?
Cummings was already controversial
Dominic Cummings is not an elected politician, but he has extraordinary power and influence (the Financial Times has described him as “arguably the second-most powerful man in Britain”). He is a “Spad” or special adviser. Most of the British civil service are nonpolitical and follow a steady career track. However, both Labour and Conservative governments have appointed Spads to occupy key roles in the bureaucracy. During Tony Blair’s government, being a Spad with key responsibilities was a fast track to becoming a member of Parliament or even eventually a minister in the government.
Cummings first became well known as an adviser to Michael Gove, the then minister for education, where he gained a reputation for ruthlessness. David Cameron, the Conservative who was then prime minister, sought to keep him out of government, and later described him as a “career psychopath.” When Cameron agreed to a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, Cummings was already out of government and became one of the key organizers of the pro-Brexit campaign. When Johnson became prime minister, he brought in Cummings as his key adviser and enforcer.
Cummings played a key role in the U.K. government’s response to the coronavirus epidemic. He reportedly persuaded Johnson to opt for a lockdown after a long period in which the government appeared uncertain what to do.
Now he’s at the center of a firestorm
The reason Cummings is in trouble is that his actions call the government’s approach to the coronavirus pandemic into question. Cummings was directly behind a lockdown policy that has imposed serious human costs, as in other countries. People have been unable to see their dying loved ones, for fear of contagion. Now, it seems the architect of the government’s policy broke the rules he himself helped create. The government’s defense of Cummings was he did what was necessary to protect his family. This narrative has become increasingly difficult to maintain, as newspaper reports have suggested he breached rules allowing only essential travel to also visit a town and castle that were 30 miles away.
This poses an obvious problem for the British government. It is hard to keep on insisting the public obeys strict rules when a senior government official declines himself to obey them. The leader of opposition Labour Party, Keir Starmer, has called for Cummings to be sacked. Several prominent conservative MPs have made similar demands. One former minister said “there cannot be one rule for most of us and wriggle room for others. My inbox is rammed with very angry constituents and I do not blame them. They have made difficult sacrifices over the course of the last nine weeks.” After Johnson’s defense of Cummings, a tweet appeared on the official Twitter account of the U.K. Civil Service for 10 minutes before it was taken down, saying “Arrogant and offensive. Can you imagine having to work with these truth twisters?”
Conservative ministers who were writing Twitter messages in support of Cummings 24 hours ago have fallen silent. The Guardian has reported Conservative party whips (the party officials who enforce loyalty on party members) have been forced to apologize to at least two government ministers for having told them earlier to tweet their support of Cummings.
Johnson relies on Cummings
So if Cummings is a political liability, why hasn’t Johnson fired him? The most plausible answer is Johnson thinks he needs Cummings. Johnson is not regarded as a detail-oriented prime minister — he prefers broad strokes to specifics — nor as being particularly energetic. Cummings is an unconventional political actor who has acquired many enemies, but he is focused on doing whatever is necessary to get his policies through.
Just as President Trump has managed to ride out many controversial hiring decisions, Johnson may be hoping he can keep Cummings until the furor dies away. However, the vulnerabilities of a prime minister and a president are necessarily different. It is extremely difficult under the U.S. constitutional system to force a president to resign, no matter how unpopular he has become. In contrast, when a British prime minister loses the support of his party in Parliament, he is in real trouble. Fifteen percent of Conservative party MPs can trigger a leadership contest by writing to the chairman of the 1922 Committee (a committee representing MPs who do not hold government office) saying they do not have confidence in the current leader.
That is why it is significant that members of the 1922 Committee have signaled they believe that Cummings has to go. It is extremely unlikely there will be an immediate leadership contest if Johnson refuses to fire him. However, if Johnson keeps Cummings, and it becomes clear the government’s support is badly damaged, Johnson might be challenged. The Conservative Party has had three prime ministers over the past four years. It is not impossible that it might soon have a fourth.