A decade after the Arab Spring, what do the citizens of Arab nations think about democracy? In its 2021-2022 public opinion survey across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Arab Barometer finds that they’re worried that democracy can’t deliver either good politics or stable and healthy economies. At the same time, democracy remains the form of government they would prefer.
The long view
The Arab Barometer is the premier academic public opinion survey in MENA, comparable to other regional counterparts such as Afrobarometer and the AmericasBarometer in its scope and methods. A decade ago, at the start of the Arab Spring, we found the that citizens across the region overwhelmingly favored democracy. At the same time, fewer than half in all 10 countries surveyed in the project’s second wave worried that democracy might bring economic weakness, indecisiveness and instability.
In the decade that followed, these views began to change, including in countries that experienced democratic openings. In Tunisia, for example, citizens began to change their minds about democracy. Shortly after the Jasmine Revolution, fewer than 1 in 5 citizens believed that instability (17 percent), indecision (19 percent) and weak economic performance (17 percent) were linked with democracy.
After two years of weak democratic governments, the percentage of Tunisians who held this view had more than doubled for all three measures: instability, 42 percent; indecision, 50 percent; and weak economy, 35 percent. Over the next decade, this perception grew, with at least two-thirds of Tunisians linking each problem with democratic governance.
How much popular support does Tunisia’s president really have?
A regional shift
Arab Barometer has conducted nearly 23,000 face-to-face interviews of citizens age 18 and above across 10 countries to date as part of its seventh wave. Each of these personal interviews are conducted in the respondent’s residence on a variety of topics, including economic, political, religious and political issues. Each country survey has a margin of error of approximately plus or minus two percentage points. Full details are available on our website.
Tunisia was not alone in its opinion shift. In seven of nine countries where we asked these questions, half or more now agree that democracy is linked with some of these shortcomings. That’s increased significantly in many countries since our last wave of interviews in 2018-2019. This shift in the region is consistent with the global trend of growing discontent with democracy.
At the same time, as our new report details, in all 10 countries we surveyed, majorities still agree that despite its problems, democracy remains the best system of governance. Moreover, in all but two of the 10, majorities go even further to say that not only is democracy the best system but the only viable system of governance.
The takeaway
In other words, MENA citizens have become clear-eyed about democracy’s shortcomings — seeing it as the best system, or even the only viable system — while understanding that it is not perfect. That’s true for citizens living in countries that previously experienced democratic openings and those that have been authoritarian over the past decade.
Overall, these findings offer some hope for democracy’s future in the region. Research finds that democracy takes hold only when all key pillars of society, including the public at large, believe there to be no better option. Citizens across MENA no longer harbor unrealistic expectations that a political transition to democracy will solve all problems in their societies — a major shift from just a decade ago. And yet they remain committed to it as their goal.
Michael Robbins (@mdhrobbins) is the director and co-principal investigator of Arab Barometer.
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