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Annals of Crappy Polls

- December 7, 2009

This has been circulating for a few months on conservative blogs and websites — or so a Google search suggests — but it was just forwarded to me by a relative:

bq. DO NOT MISS YOUR CHANCE TO CAST YOUR VOTE:

bq. Finally, a chance to vote on President Obama’s performance on this Economy and where he is taking this nation… AT&T/YahooPoll… This totally non-partisan poll asks but one question. The question is stated very simply… and, to the point. No tricks. No hidden messages. JUST ONE SINGLE, SIMPLE QUESTION. I don’t know why this hasn’t been done before..

bq. I’m impressed with the fact that the question is NOT “phrased” in a way that it can be interpreted or misrepresented later…to fit someone else’s desired answer.

bq. http://js..polls.yahoo.com/quiz/quiziframe.php?poll id=46067

bq. NOTE: After you vote, you will see a second page that shows the running total and what these voters opinions are.

bq. Then pass it on… so others may cast their vote.

So I click the link and here is the question:

bq. The president’s progress with the battered economy has been both praised and criticized. How well are his efforts measuring up with you?

* Extremely well. We are undoubtedly moving in the right direction.
* Fairly well. There’s still a long way to go.
* Not well at all. His plans are hurting more than helping.
* Not sure/No opinion.

At first I thought this was a hoax, but some searching didn’t suggest that this was true.

So then, where to begin? We’ll ignore the nonsense in the email — e.g,. the notion that only “finally” are people being asked their opinions about Obama and the economy. The bigger issue is the question itself. This is a poll sponsored by AT&T and Yahoo and this is what they come up with? Does the concept of “double-barreled” mean anything to them? What if I think that he’s done extremely well, but we have a long way to go? What if I think that we’re headed in the right direction and have a long way to go? Etc.

Obama’s performance on the economy has been measured over and over using better questions — questions that would even meet the author’s standards (“non-partisan,” “simple,” etc.):

More on the data is at Pollster.

And it will probably not surprise readers of this blog that the self-selected sample of respondents — and there have been over 40 million responses (not respondents, naturally) — tends toward strong opinions: 37% say “extremely well” and 61% say “not well at all.” Only 1% say “fairly well.”

This is the opposite of what is actually true. When given more options than “approve” and “disapprove” most people cluster in the middle options, not the extremes. For example, a November Harris Interactive poll found that 34% considered Obama’s performance on the economy to be “pretty good” and 30% it to be “fair.” Only 13% said “excellent.” Only 23% said “poor.”

I note that other AT&T Yahoo polls have this same problem. Here’s one on Lou Dobbs:

bq. Longtime CNN anchor Lou Dobbs is making trouble for the network, reported a story popular on AT&T Yahoo! this week. His coverage of the “birther” movement, which questions the authenticity of Barack Obama’s birth certificate, has brought the most fallout. His persistence with the story has embarrassed CNN execs and also contributed to a drop in ratings, say insiders. The bad press has put his job in jeopardy.

bq. What do you think? Should Lou Dobbs keep his job?

* Yes. He’s an important voice in the news industry.
* No. It’s time for him to go.
* Not sure/No opinion

Much better would be just “yes” or “no.” It’s entirely possible to think he’s an important voice but that it’s time for him to go.

I am wasting my time yelling at random internet polls, of course. But you’d think with big corporate dollars behind this, At&T and Yahoo could come up with something better.

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