With the anniversary of last summer’s Russian-Georgian war coming up later this week, Russian-Georgian relations are getting more than their typical share of media attention at the moment (see for example “here”:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124942147071505841.html#printMode, “here”:http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GEORGIA_RUSSIA_WAR?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT, and “here”:http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/1793048.html). I’ll have more to say about my reflections on the war a year on out later this week, but for now just wanted to share a “provocative post”:http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/08/04/new-russia-georgia-war/#more-2193 on Anatoly Karlin’s blog “Sublime Oblivion”:http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/ that suggests a number of reasons why we might witness a second Russian-Georgian war in the not so distant future. Among the many points he notes are:
bq. Georgia is the linchpin of the Caucasus. Securing a Russian-friendly government there will reinforce Russian control of gas flows from Central Asia to Europe, extend its influence over the Black Sea region and allow it to link up with its ally Armenia, which hosts a Russian military base.
bq. Georgia is not a strong nation. It is riven by divisions that could be exploited, e.g. separatist-minded Adjara and Armenian-populated Samtskhe-Javakheti. Its economy is dependent on agriculture and the government budget relies on pipeline rents.
bq. Many elements of the Russian military were disappointed at being ordered to stop before overthrowing Saakashvili. They would love to finish the job (and furnish the excuse).
There are a lot more arguments in the “post”:http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/08/04/new-russia-georgia-war/#more-2193, so worth a look for those who are interested.