In our continuing series of “election reports from political scientists”:https://themonkeycage.org/2009/09/election_reports_and_political.html, I am pleased to present the following guest post from “Professor Marco Lisi”:http://www.ics.ul.pt/instituto/?ln=p&mm=2&ctmid=3&mnid=3&pid=154&sr=&doc=31809901190 of the “Social Sciences Institute of the University of Lisbon”:http://www.ics.ul.pt/instituto/ on the 2009 Portuguese legislative elections:
The European elections held in June 2009 inaugurated a series of three elections in which Portuguese voters had the possibility to choose their representatives at the European, national and local level, respectively. After the first absolute majority achieved in its history by the Socialist party (PS) in 2005, the government led by the Prime Minister José Sócrates had to face huge challenges, especially in terms of economic performance and reform of social policies. These factors – as well as personal scandals associated with the figure of the Prime Minister – slowly undermined the popularity of the government by the second half of the legislative session. Thus, the socialist lead over the main opposition party – the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) – increasingly diminished, especially after the leadership change occurred in 2008 with the election of Manuela Ferreira Leite as the new opposition leader. In the 2009 European elections the PS suffered a huge defeat, receiving only 26.6 per cent of the vote, while the PSD won 31.7 percent. Although in second order elections small parties are expected to perform better than in national competition, opinion polls predicted that the substantial loss of supporters for the PS would also harm the two smaller left-wing parties, the Portuguese Communist party (PCP) and the Left Block (BE). In fact, both parties substantially increased their electoral performance compared with previous results, obtaining more than 10 per cent.
The European election results not only strengthened the PSD leadership, but also consolidated the growth of extreme left parties. The steadily loss of the PS government’s public support seemed to increase the competitiveness of the legislative elections. Thus, at the beginning of the campaign for the legislative elections, held September 27, it was clear that achieving an absolute majority was just a dream. After the huge electoral defeat, Sócrates attempted to polarize the contest and to reduce the debate to the choice between the two main parties, the PS and the PSD. At the same time, he appealed to strategic voters, those who voted for small parties in June to punish the incumbent party, by emphasizing the danger of government instability and setting forth more leftist policies, not only through big state investments but also in terms of “post-materialist” policies. While the socialist leader adopted a twofold strategy in order to recover electoral losses with regard to both right and radical left parties, the PSD leader Manuel Ferreira Leite employed a low-profile strategy, trying to differentiate her style from Sócrates’ and focusing mostly on a retrospective evaluation of the socialist government.
The outcome of the 2009 legislative elections showed that the PS was able to recover partially from the huge defeat obtained in the European elections, though without achieving an absolute majority. The socialists ended up winning 36.6 per cent of vote, a significantly lower share than they obtained in the 2005 legislative elections (45 per cent). It was, in fact, the worst results achieved by the PS since 1991. However, the fact that the PSD, despite favorable conditions, was not able to increase its electoral performance with respect to the previous elections could be claimed as a victory by the Prime Minister. Yet, the most striking result was achieved by the small right party Popular Party-Social Democratic Center which went from 7.3 per cent in 2005 to 10.6 per cent in 2009, becoming the third largest party in the Portuguese parliament. The Left Block, an extreme left party, was also very successful and obtained 9.9 per cent of the vote, compared with around 6 per cent in 2005, while the PCP essentially maintained the same vote share as in 2005 but won 15 seats as opposed to 14 in the previous legislature. This means that, following a trend that had already emerged in 2005, vote concentration in the two main parties is shrinking, while competitiveness and party fragmentation have significantly increased.
Overall, the election results paved the way to a very uncertain scenario. Despite the victory, Sócrates had to opt between a minority government and a coalition. While the first hypothesis does not ensure a stable government, the second seems highly risky because of the differences separating the PS from the other parties, especially the right ones. Furthermore, the PSD defeat may lead to a leadership change if the center-right party is not be able to record gains in the next local elections, to be held October 11. In this political context it is quite unlikely that a new socialist government will be able to provide a stable executive in the years to come.