“Once again”:https://themonkeycage.org/election_reports/, we welcome “Gregory Weeks”:http://www.politicalscience.uncc.edu/gbweeks/, this time with pre-election analysis of Sunday’s 2009 Chilean elections:
For Sunday’s elections in Chile the key question is whether the right can finally win the presidency. In every election since the return to democracy in 1990, the center-left “Concertación” coalition has won. For the past two elections, however, it has faced a second round after each candidate (Ricardo Lagos and Michelle Bachelet) failed to win a majority in the first.
Rumors of the Concertación’s death have often been greatly exaggerated, but the conservative “Alianza” coalition has a very good chance of winning. The Concertación’s “approval rating”:http://www.adimark.cl/medios/Ev_Gobierno_Nov09.pdf is abysmal at 28%. President Bachelet’s personal approval is at 77%, but she has generated no coattails. Chileans credit her (along with Finance Minister Andrés Velasco) with sound fiscal policies that helped the economy weather the global recession, but that good will does not spread to the coalition. (For more on the Bachelet administration, in the shameless plug department I co-edited “a book”:http://www.amazon.com/Bachelet-Government-Conflict-Consensus-Post-Pinochet/dp/0813034752/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1260464252&sr=1-2 on that topic with Silvia Borzutzky, which will be out next year).
The Concertación’s candidate is Eduardo Frei, who was previously president from 1994-2000 and is currently a senator from the Christian Democratic Party. His campaign has widely been viewed as lackluster, to the point that at various times earlier this year he felt compelled to “re-start” it, perhaps because no one had noticed he had launched it in the first place. He should therefore be an easy target.
But not quite so fast.
The Alianza’s problem is that its 25% approval rating is even worse than the Concertación’s. As a result, a full 50% of Chileans consider themselves “independent” or “other.” Further, the Alianza’s two member parties have been squabbling about whether their candidate, billionaire Sebastián Piñera, is providing enough help to their congressional candidates. Indeed, the Concertación’s ability to remain in power for 19 years is attributable in part to the right’s inability to offer a coherent programmatic alternative.
In this context of generalized disapproval, an independent candidate emerged. Marco Enríquez-Ominami (often abbreviated as MEO) was in the Chamber of Deputies and a member of the Socialist Party but left it to run as an independent. His father was killed during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, and his adoptive father is Socialist Senator Carlos Ominami. Although he is firmly planted in the establishment, he has portrayed himself as a young fresh face.
“A recent poll”:http://www.santiagotimes.cl/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17601:chile-poll-frei-and-pinera-expected-to-face-off-in-january&catid=49:elections&Itemid=27 from the Center for Public Studies put Piñera at 36%, Frei at 26%, and MEO at 19%. The Center for the Study of Contemporary Reality gives Piñera an “even greater edge”:http://www.santiagotimes.cl/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17827:cerc-poll-confirms-pinera-lead-in-chile-presidential-election&catid=49:elections&Itemid=27 at 44%, to Frei’s 31% and MEO’s 18%, with Communist Party candidate Jorge Arrate at 7%. A late surge could possibly give Piñera a majority, though a runoff is more likely. In that case, the fight for votes will be intense. MEO has tried to frame himself as the only candidate who could win against the right, but even if he fails to come in second, Frei will have to court him.
There are also legislative elections. -Half- +All+ of the 120 members of the Chamber of Deputies and the 38 member Senate are up for election. The Concertación is just shy of a majority (at 56, to the Alianza’s 52) in the former and each coalition has 16 senators, in addition to a sprinkling of independents in each. The Chamber of Deputies +and Senate+ utilize a binomial system, with 60 two-member districts. In order to win both seats, a party (or coalition) must win at least two-thirds of the district vote. If that threshold is not reached, the party with the second most votes wins the second seat.
The presidential results will get the most attention by far, but given how close each coalition is to a majority, the legislative results will offer a glimpse at the challenges the new president will face.