After the surprise of 2016, here’s how pollsters can do better in predicting election results
[caption id="attachment_59108" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President-elect Donald Trump, alongside his wife,
Will a cease-fire hold? Ask the stock market rather than the pundit.
[caption id="attachment_54182" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People wait for food on July
Would President Trump go to war to divert attention from problems at home?
[caption id="attachment_51440" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gives
Mitch McConnell said you don’t need experience to be president
Here's why he's wrong.
Can you trust British polls on whether to leave the E.U.?
[caption id="attachment_41558" align="aligncenter" width="960"] British Prime Minister David Cameron, right,
Pundits are regularly outpredicted by people you’ve never heard of. Here’s how to change that.
[caption id="attachment_30148" align="aligncenter" width="331"] (Courtesy, Crown Publishing)[/caption] In the weeks
Who predicted Russia’s military intervention?
Other than Sarah Palin and certain Russian astrologers, few people
Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)
This is a guest post by Michael Horowitz, an associate
Yes, Forecasting Conflict Can Help Make Better Foreign Policy Decisions: A Response to Salehyan
Over at Dart Throwing Chimp, Jay Ulfelder responds to yesterday's Monkey
Potpourri
* We mistakenly assume that nonvoters would vote like we
Improving Intelligence Forecasting
Mike Horowitz and Philip Tetlock in Foreign Policy: Academic research suggests
Mike Horowitz: Help Us Become Better Forecasters
From Mike Horowitz's post today at the Duck of Minerva:
Dart-Throwing Chimps and Op-Eds
When the House passed the Flake amendment to cut NSF
Why the Stevens Op-Ed is Wrong
A rather lengthier response to "Jacqueline Stevens' op-ed":http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/opinion/sunday/political-scientists-are-lousy-forecasters.html. Speaking to
Traditionalist claims that modern art could just as well be replaced by a “paint-throwing chimp”
Jed Dougherty points me to this opinion piece by Jacqueline
Less pundits please
"Jonah Lehrer":http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/scienceblogs/wDAM/~3/n4lwQf_DNA4/political_dissonance.php puts together the _Boston Globe_ article on political
Campaigning, governing, and the complexity of political speeches
Sanjay Srivista draws some interesting connections between a recent Obama
Wrong Tomorrow
I have a post up on me other blog mentioning
Political and economic forecasting: Accuracy doesn’t matter
bq. I learnt during the new economy bubble that people
Often in error, but never in doubt — The (in)accuracy of pundits’ poliical predictions
Political scientists tend to be lousy political prognosticators. We speak