After the surprise of 2016, here’s how pollsters can do better in predicting election results
[caption id="attachment_59108" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President-elect Donald Trump, alongside his wife,
Will a cease-fire hold? Ask the stock market rather than the pundit.
[caption id="attachment_54182" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People wait for food on July
Would President Trump go to war to divert attention from problems at home?
[caption id="attachment_51440" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gives
Can you trust British polls on whether to leave the E.U.?
[caption id="attachment_41558" align="aligncenter" width="960"] British Prime Minister David Cameron, right,
Pundits are regularly outpredicted by people you’ve never heard of. Here’s how to change that.
[caption id="attachment_30148" align="aligncenter" width="331"] (Courtesy, Crown Publishing)[/caption] In the weeks
Who predicted Russia’s military intervention?
Other than Sarah Palin and certain Russian astrologers, few people
Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)
This is a guest post by Michael Horowitz, an associate
Yes, Forecasting Conflict Can Help Make Better Foreign Policy Decisions: A Response to Salehyan
Over at Dart Throwing Chimp, Jay Ulfelder responds to yesterday's Monkey
Potpourri
* We mistakenly assume that nonvoters would vote like we