Why did the polls undercount Trump voters? Ryan L. Claassen and Barry Ryan - November 13, 2020 It’s not because of ‘shy’ Trump voters, our research suggests
Want to know why the networks finally called it for Biden? Here’s the likely reason. Henry Farrell - November 7, 2020 Game theory explains why the news networks held off calling the election for so long, and then all called it at once
How will Americans respond when there’s another split between the electoral college and the popular vote? Susan C. Stokes, Shun Yamaya, Mitch Sanders, John Carey, Gretchen Helmke, and Brendan Nyhan - September 7, 2020 Only Democrats think this scenario makes the election less legitimate
Romney’s not really alone. Republican senators were ready to oust Nixon in 1974. von Hippel - February 11, 2020 That’s why Nixon resigned first.
Would Booker and Castro be in tonight’s debate if polls counted people of color accurately? Matt A. Barreto - December 18, 2019 Most polls misrepresent the Democratic electorate. Here’s how that skews the results.
How election forecasts confuse Americans — and may lead them not to vote at all Solomon Messing - March 22, 2018 [caption id="attachment_64714" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (David Goldman/AP)[/caption] Where were you on
4 important takeaways from the Virginia governor’s race John Sides - November 8, 2017 Ralph Northam's convincing victory in last night's Virginia governor's race
New forecast: only a 55% chance that Jon Ossoff wins Georgia’s House special election John Sides - June 20, 2017 [caption id="attachment_60097" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff in the
After the surprise of 2016, here’s how pollsters can do better in predicting election results Ville Satopää - May 31, 2017 [caption id="attachment_59108" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President-elect Donald Trump, alongside his wife,
Why the polls missed in 2016: Was it shy Trump supporters after all? Peter Enns, Julius Lagodny, and Jonathon Schuldt - December 13, 2016 [caption id="attachment_50682" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A man votes at City Hall
How to better communicate election forecasts — in one simple chart Justin Gross - November 29, 2016 On Oct. 30, the Chicago Cubs were down three games
Polls may be making voters worse at predicting elections Benjamin Toff - November 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49060" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Voters wait in line to cast
Three graphic novels to read to get through this election Marc Lynch - November 4, 2016 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="480"] Transmetropolitan (Courtesy of DC/Vertigo)[/caption] With the
Why Donald Trump’s ‘rigged elections’ warning could actually make his supporters less likely to vote John Sides - August 15, 2016 If you were running for president, and you wanted to
A deep dive into the news media’s role in the rise of Donald J. Trump Kalev Leetaru and John Sides - June 24, 2016 [caption id="attachment_42412" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump with Fox News anchor
How to read the election polls — and keep your sanity — in two easy steps - June 8, 2016 [caption id="attachment_40883" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary
Every latest shift in the polls is news. But it shouldn’t be. Andrew Gelman - May 19, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39837" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses
No, Congressional Republicans haven’t become more polarized. Patrick Egan - October 30, 2015 [caption id="attachment_31501" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Newly elected Speaker of the House
Is the media biased against Bernie Sanders? Not really. John Sides - September 23, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27976" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders speaks
Canada just kicked off its election season. Here's what you need to know. - August 4, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28177" align="aligncenter" width="982"] Stephen Harper, Canada's prime minister, speaks
Canada just kicked off its election season. Here’s what you need to know. Richard Johnston - August 4, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28177" align="aligncenter" width="982"] Stephen Harper, Canada's prime minister, speaks
Why the Republicans can't agree on a presidential candidate (and the Democrats have all but settled on theirs) - May 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_25431" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] The symbols of the Democratic, left,
Why the Republicans can’t agree on a presidential candidate (and the Democrats have all but settled on theirs) Wayne Steger - May 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_25431" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] The symbols of the Democratic, left,
Clinton scandals may have defeated one presidential candidate. Could they do it again? Jeremy Pope - March 27, 2015 [caption id="attachment_22987" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Former U.S. secretary of state Hillary
Why it makes sense for Jon Tester to head the DSCC David Parker - November 20, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18292" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in Washington
Final forecast: Republicans have a 98% chance of taking the Senate John Sides - November 4, 2014 Barring any changes due to polls released in the next
Is the Election Lab forecast too confident in a GOP Senate majority? Eric McGhee - October 21, 2014 With about two weeks to go until Election Day, a
Why late shifts in the polls probably won't help Democrats in Senate races John Sides - October 17, 2014 All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at
Why late shifts in the polls probably won’t help Democrats in Senate races John Sides - October 17, 2014 All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at
The secret truths of election forecasting John Sides - September 22, 2014 In case you missed it, election forecasting can be fractious.
Election forecasting: Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang Andrew Gelman - September 19, 2014 Paul Alper pointed me to an explanation by Nate Silver
There was a major shake-up in the Kansas Senate race. Or was there? John Sides - September 4, 2014 [caption id="attachment_15223" align="aligncenter" width="620"] In this Aug. 13, 2014, file
Who won the Republican civil war? Robert Boatright - August 13, 2014 [caption id="attachment_11890" align="aligncenter" width="606"] Eric Cantor (AFP PHOTO / Mandel
Hey, news media! Save a few million bucks by cutting back on the horse-race polls Andrew Gelman - June 17, 2014 Nadia Hassan writes: The journal PS and Politics recently had
Why the Senate forecasting models differ John Sides - May 6, 2014 "There's not a data journalism bubble (IMO) but there's quite possibly
The 8 most pivotal Senate seats in 2014 Ben Highton - April 1, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark.,
Why Republicans can be even more optimistic about taking the Senate John Sides - March 31, 2014 [caption id="attachment_6481" align="aligncenter" width="620" special=""] (Michael Hicks/via Flickr)[/caption] Democrats' prospects
Support for same-sex marriage is increasing faster than ever before Andrew Flores - March 14, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606"] Larry Pascua carries a rainbow flag
Dear Nicholas Kristof: We are right here! Erik Voeten - February 15, 2014 Nicholas Kristof has a well-meaning but highly dramatic and one-sided
Predictions for 2014 and happy New Year! Joshua Tucker - December 31, 2013 [caption id="attachment_4568" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Cory Booker, Tweeter-in-Chief (Lynne Sladky/AP)[/caption]
What Max Baucus's departure means for the Montana Senate race John Sides - December 19, 2013 [caption id="attachment_4286" align="aligncenter" width="600" special=""] (Haraz N. Ghanbari — Associated
Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile Joshua Tucker - December 9, 2013 Joshua Tucker: The following is a guest post from London
Did Romney lose because he wasn't likable enough? Probably not. John Sides - November 5, 2013 [caption id="attachment_2657" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Jim Young/Reuters)[/caption] CNN's Peter Hamby
To understand the emotive part of voters’ decisions, you need numbers Dan Hopkins - November 4, 2013 At the end of The Washington Post's review of the
The electoral ramifications of the shutdown are far from clear John Sides - October 15, 2013 [caption id="attachment_1656" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Win McNamee/Getty Images)[/caption] The latest
"The definitive account of what really happened and what really mattered in the campaign." John Sides - October 7, 2013 This week I will be writing some posts about a
The rise of the machines in the study of politics: 5 things I learned from studies using #TextAsData Joshua Tucker - September 28, 2013 [caption id="attachment_574" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Cloud computing and similar innovations
Yes, Forecasting Conflict Can Help Make Better Foreign Policy Decisions: A Response to Salehyan Joshua Tucker - July 30, 2013 Over at Dart Throwing Chimp, Jay Ulfelder responds to yesterday's Monkey
One Irony of Nate Silver’s Leaving the New York Times John Sides - July 23, 2013 Nate Silver's imminent departure from the New York Times to
Are the Democrats still at a disadvantage in redistricting? Eric McGhee - July 9, 2013 To what extent are Democrats inherently disadvantaged in congressional elections
My theory: Nate Silver is paying those Politico guys to say these silly things Andrew Gelman - June 25, 2013 The question is, how could these guys at Politico say
The Harris-VandeHei Interview Sells Even Politico Short John Sides - June 24, 2013 Following up on David's post, I wanted to offer a
The Pathologies of Politico David Karol - June 19, 2013 Politico produces much valuable reporting. Yet it is also frequently
Why It Matters that Obama’s Approval Rating Is Falling John Sides - June 18, 2013 Despite ridiculous hype about a recent CNN poll that showed
What If a Party Re-branded Itself, and Americans Never Noticed? John Sides - June 14, 2013 Greg Sargent: bq. Which raises a question that I wish
Video of the Roundtable on the 2012 Election, featuring Ezra Klein and Nate Silver John Sides - May 21, 2013 <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_sHelkLTJPE?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Here is a video
Election Roundtable TODAY, with Ezra Klein and Nate Silver (New Location!) John Sides - April 13, 2013 The roundtable on the 2012 election that I mentioned before
Roundtable on the 2012 Election, Featuring Ezra Klein and Nate Silver John Sides - April 8, 2013 At the upcoming meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association
Rating the Presidents Andrew Rudalevige - January 24, 2013 As Barack Obama enters his second term, some already
Do Americans Trust Goverment Less Because It’s Become an Insurance Broker? John Sides - January 17, 2013 At the end of an interesting and data-packed post on
Surveys in Conflict Settings Jason Lyall - December 5, 2012 With no small amount of ceremony, the Asia Foundation released
Asian Americans Voted Democrat: We Should Not Be Surprised Erik Voeten - November 29, 2012 We are delighted to welcome the following guest post by Karthick
Dinner Won’t Do It Andrew Rudalevige - November 26, 2012 Since the election President Obama has received a wide range
Nate Silver Featured in Doonesbury Joshua Tucker - November 21, 2012 For anyone who hasn't seen it, Doonesbury is featuring a
Why Money Still Matters John Sides - November 15, 2012 This is a guest post by political scientist and Sunlight
Is Nate Silver’s popularity good or bad for quantitative political science? Joshua Tucker - November 7, 2012 The following is a guest post from political scientists Adam
Gallup(ing) Away from the Herd John Sides - November 7, 2012 This is a guest post by Samuel Best, Associate Professor
Is Nate Silver Incentive Compatible? Henry Farrell - November 7, 2012 I'll leave it to John to write the bigger post
2012 Was the Moneyball Election John Sides - November 7, 2012 Barack Obama's victory tonight is also a victory for the
What About Tomorrow’s Election Would Prove Me Wrong? (Plus a Prediction) John Sides - November 6, 2012 To date, I haven't made a formal forecast of the
More Election Reflections - November 5, 2012 * WEATHERING THE ELECTION: With The Washington Post and USA
Too close to call Andrew Gelman - October 31, 2012 From my online NYT column: For months now people I
How Will the Undecideds Break? John Sides - October 26, 2012 This question obviously has important implications for who wins this
In Defense of the Electoral College Joshua Tucker - October 26, 2012 Over the past few weeks, I have had the enjoyable
Steven Levitt says that he has a “good indicator” that Aaron Edlin, Noah Kaplan, Nate Silver, and I are “not so smart” Andrew Gelman - October 25, 2012 Here's the transcript (link from here): DUBNER: So Levitt, how
Is Positive News from Intrade a Good Use of Campaign Resources? Joshua Tucker - October 23, 2012 I wrote a post last week about the link between
Convergence between Polls and Prediction Markets in US Presidential Election Joshua Tucker - October 18, 2012 I'm intrigued by the recent convergence between Nate Silver's 2012
The Constant Attention to Individual Polls Is Hurting America John Sides - October 8, 2012 This morning, Nate Silver tweeted: bq. Retweeting individual poll results
A Non-random Walk Down Campaign Street Andrew Gelman - September 28, 2012 Political campaigns are commonly understood as random walks, during which,
Research explaining mean reversion of election forecasts: why each new poll provides very very little information about the election outcome, given what we already know Andrew Gelman - September 19, 2012 Brad DeLong writes: There is a huge amount of mean
It’s Still Hard for People to Get the Fundamentals Right John Sides - September 18, 2012 Alas, this topic is becoming a series. Jonathan Martin: bq.
Many Unlikely Voters Still Vote - September 11, 2012 What is the current state the Presidential race? The answer
Monkey Cage APSA “Reception” with Sasha Issenberg, Ezra Klein, and Nate Silver John Sides - August 24, 2012 The Restaurant Ste. Marie's Champagne Tower For the second year,
Is Paul Ryan Really the Most Conservative Vice-Presidential Nominee? John Sides - August 13, 2012 This is a guest post from University of California, Berkeley
What Really Happened in the 1980 Presidential Campaign John Sides - August 9, 2012 Bryon York reports: Romney aides believe strongly that this race
The electoral college favors voters in small states (on average), not large states Andrew Gelman - July 28, 2012 Jonathan Bernstein writes: The big, urban states traditionally did very
What Would an Obama Victory Mean for Political Science? John Sides - July 9, 2012 Noam Scheiber tweets: This prompted replies from me, "Dave McW,"
Some Predictions on the Supreme Court’s Decision John Sides - June 28, 2012 Before the Court issues its ruling, I'll put these down:
The Party of the Governor Doesn’t Influence the Presidential Election John Sides - June 6, 2012 Nate Silver runs down the numbers. Let me also link
If Same-Sex Marriage Is so Popular, Why Does It Always Lose at the Ballot Box? (Includes state-level data on support and legislation) Joshua Tucker - May 15, 2012 With the continuing debate regarding the electoral implications of Obama's
Defining Dissidence Down David Karol - May 10, 2012 In all the coverage of Senator Richard Lugar's crushing 20-point
Which Economy is it, Stupid? Part III: Depends on whether you are an investor, home owner, or renter Joshua Tucker - May 2, 2012 Following up on my recent posts (here and here) regarding
Cranky Reader Dislikes The Washington Post Election Predictor John Sides - April 25, 2012 Cranky Reader: Sides, you are not only a moron, but
Which Economy is it, Stupid? Part II: Comparative Edition Joshua Tucker - April 24, 2012 Following my post last week on the topic of which
Which Economy is it, Stupid? Joshua Tucker - April 17, 2012 Since James Carville famously wrote "The Economy, Stupid" in Bill