Pollsters weighted more in 2024 – and it helped Brian Schaffner and Caroline Soler - November 26, 2024 Adjustments for education and past vote made national and state polls more accurate.
The questionable politics behind Biden’s student loan debt relief John Sides - May 1, 2024 Enacting policies that benefit people doesn’t necessarily earn their vote.
Why did the polls undercount Trump voters? Ryan L. Claassen and Barry Ryan - November 13, 2020 It’s not because of ‘shy’ Trump voters, our research suggests
Want to know why the networks finally called it for Biden? Here’s the likely reason. Henry Farrell - November 7, 2020 Game theory explains why the news networks held off calling the election for so long, and then all called it at once
How will Americans respond when there’s another split between the electoral college and the popular vote? Susan Stokes, Shun Yamaya, Mitchell Sanders, John Carey, Gretchen Helmke, and Brendan Nyhan - September 7, 2020 Only Democrats think this scenario makes the election less legitimate
Romney’s not really alone. Republican senators were ready to oust Nixon in 1974. Paul von Hippel - February 11, 2020 That’s why Nixon resigned first.
Would Booker and Castro be in tonight’s debate if polls counted people of color accurately? Matt Barreto - December 18, 2019 Most polls misrepresent the Democratic electorate. Here’s how that skews the results.
How election forecasts confuse Americans — and may lead them not to vote at all Solomon Messing - March 22, 2018 [caption id="attachment_64714" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (David Goldman/AP)[/caption] Where were you on
4 important takeaways from the Virginia governor’s race John Sides - November 8, 2017 Ralph Northam's convincing victory in last night's Virginia governor's race
New forecast: only a 55% chance that Jon Ossoff wins Georgia’s House special election John Sides - June 20, 2017 [caption id="attachment_60097" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff in the