A simple forecast suggests a Democratic sweep in 2020
Low presidential-approval ratings and the covid-19 recession are key factors to watch.
Early election forecast: Republicans could lose 38 seats and House majority
[caption id="attachment_43461" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (Erika P. Rodriguez for The Washington
Who should Trump and Clinton pick as running mates? This research says it doesn’t really matter.
[caption id="attachment_38412" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Karen Bleier/AFP)[/caption] Even with the Democratic
Forecasters agree that Republicans will control the House
[caption id="attachment_17694" align="aligncenter" width="3462"] (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)[/caption] In 2012 the Republicans
Hey, news media! Save a few million bucks by cutting back on the horse-race polls
Nadia Hassan writes: The journal PS and Politics recently had
Potpourri
* New survey of small business owners: visualization, paper. It
Potpourri
Gary King, Jennifer Pan, and Molly Roberts: How Censorship in
Potpourri
* Latest election forecast by Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
Potpourri
* Profile of Lanhee Chen, Romney policy advisor and Harvard
Which Economy is it, Stupid? Part II: Comparative Edition
Following my post last week on the topic of which
Potpourri
* Romney's big victories in Wyoming and Michigan the last
Potpourri
* Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien update their presidential election
Potpourri
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien update their earlier presidential election forecast.
How I Think about the Economy in Iowa (and The Other 49 States)
In response to Michael Lewis-Beck's guest post below, the New
Actually, [According to data from mid-late 2000s] Iowa is Extremely Representative in Terms of its Economy!
We are once again pleased to welcome back Professor Michael
“Nowcasting” the 2012 US Presidential Elections
We are pleased to welcome professors Charles Tien of Hunter
Did Race Cost Obama in 2008?
Erik recently blogged about a new paper (pdf) by Seth
Forecasting Spanish Elections: 2011 Spanish Pre-Election Report
We are pleased to welcome back "Pedro C. Magalhães":http://sites.google.com/site/pmdccm/, currently
The Debt Ceiling Yet Again: A Quick Response to Nate Silver
Silver: bq. I don’t think I’d say that Mr. Obama
Why Divided Government Is Bad for Obama
The likely onset of divided government -- with Democrats in
Political Science Forecasts for the 2010 Midterm Elections
At the APSA meeting, there was the traditional election forecasting
Do Deficits Matter for Midterm Elections?
Ezra Klein writes yesterday about the effects of deficits and
The Stock Market and Economic Voting
Over at Politico this morning, there is a story entitled
Is the OLS Regression Model Dead in Political Science?
In the latest issue of The Political Methodologist, James S.