This is how Biden eked out his 2020 victory David Brady and Brett Parker - February 12, 2021 In a divided country, elections are won on the margin
Django Reinhardt, ‘College Stomp’: The Week In One Song Christopher Federico - December 18, 2020 Biden wins again, this time in the electoral college.
This is how you stop fake news Adam Berinsky - March 28, 2017 “Fake news” has become big news. President Trump has regularly
Will the anti-Trump protests expand? That’s more likely than ever before Raymond Fisman and Miriam Golden - February 6, 2017 [caption id="attachment_53650" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People protest against President Trump on
Why on earth do we even have an electoral college anyway? Andrew Rudalevige - November 8, 2016 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] The allocation of electoral college votes,
Why John Kasich could have a better chance of becoming president than Evan McMullin Joshua Tucker - October 19, 2016 [caption id="attachment_47989" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Statuettes of presidential candidates Donald Trump
Sure, the U.S. and Russia often meddle in foreign elections. Does it matter? Dov Levin - September 7, 2016 [caption id="attachment_45923" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A voter wears an "I voted"
Could a third-party candidate win the U.S. presidency? That’s very unlikely. Amanda Skuldt - August 2, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44790" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A supporter of former Democratic presidential
Will the Cleveland convention help Trump win Ohio? Probably not. Joseph Uscinski and Christopher B. Mann - July 15, 2016 [caption id="attachment_43710" align="aligncenter" width="960"] CLEVELAND, OH - JULY 11: Windows
Here’s a close look at how immigrant voters could affect the 2016 U.S. election Thomas Holbrook - June 26, 2016 [caption id="attachment_42738" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Mexican and U.S. flags are seen
This year’s Libertarian ticket has remarkable political experience. Now will it matter? Kyle Kopko and Christopher Devine - May 31, 2016 [caption id="attachment_41353" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Campaign buttons for Libertarian presidential candidate
Can Trump re-draw the electoral map? There’s one big problem. John Sides and Andrew Gelman - May 10, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39913" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks
Who should Trump and Clinton pick as running mates? This research says it doesn’t really matter. Kyle Kopko and Christopher Devine - April 25, 2016 [caption id="attachment_38412" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Karen Bleier/AFP)[/caption] Even with the Democratic
India’s ruling party just lost an important election. So what? Adam Ziegfeld - November 10, 2015 [caption id="attachment_32006" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Nitish Kumar (L), a leader of
This political scientist spent a year in prison. Here’s what he learned. Jeff Smith - October 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_31447" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Barbed wire at Maryland Correctional Training
This one chart shows you the politics of U.S. citizenship Tom Wong - September 1, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29052" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (khoa vu/Getty Images)[/caption] Donald Trump has
Even more on the potential impact of mandatory voting John Sides - March 25, 2015 Earlier this week, I took on the subject of mandatory
Forecasting the 2014 Brazilian election Marco Morales and Francisco Cantú - October 24, 2014 Joshua Tucker: The following is a guest post from political
The fall of Atlanta and Lincoln’s reelection: ‘Game-changer’ or campaign myth? Nathan Kalmoe - September 2, 2014 [caption id="attachment_14837" align="aligncenter" width="454"] Gen. William T. Sherman among the
The fall of Atlanta and Lincoln’s reelection: 'Game-changer' or campaign myth? Nathan Kalmoe - September 2, 2014 [caption id="attachment_14837" align="aligncenter" width="454"] Gen. William T. Sherman among the
Who won the Republican civil war? Robert Boatright - August 13, 2014 [caption id="attachment_11890" align="aligncenter" width="606"] Eric Cantor (AFP PHOTO / Mandel
The Electoral College challenge facing the Republicans in 2016 Ben Highton - May 7, 2014 Last week I gave the Democrats a better than 80
A big Electoral College advantage for the Democrats is looming Ben Highton - April 28, 2014 [caption id="attachment_9876" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Alex Brandon/AP)[/caption] If the 2016
The surprising parity of the 2012 ground game Dan Hopkins - February 27, 2014 Ryan D. Enos and Anthony Fowler are assistant professors at
The Democratic Party's uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016 John Sides - January 19, 2014 [caption id="attachment_5483" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Haraz N. Ghanbari/AP)[/caption] My Post
Asian Americans Voted Democrat: We Should Not Be Surprised Erik Voeten - November 29, 2012 We are delighted to welcome the following guest post by Karthick
Would Alternatives to the Electoral College Be Any Fairer? John Sides - November 28, 2012 bq. In the election for President of the United States,
Oh no . . . Obama is doooooomed!!!!!!!!!!! (Don’t worry, it’s just Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen talking) Andrew Gelman - November 16, 2012 Political strategists Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen report that Romney
Red-blue maps for different slices of the population Andrew Gelman - November 15, 2012 Avi Feller and I write: The basic question driving the
Fresh Data on Obama Voter Mobilization John Sides - November 9, 2012 This is a guest post from political scientists Ryan Enos
More Evidence that Obama’s Victory Reflects the Economic Fundamentals Joshua Tucker - November 8, 2012 The following is a guest post from NYU political scientist
What About Tomorrow’s Election Would Prove Me Wrong? (Plus a Prediction) John Sides - November 6, 2012 To date, I haven't made a formal forecast of the
How Biased Do the Polls Need to Be for Romney to Win? John Sides - November 5, 2012 This is a guest post from Robert Erikson and Karl
Forecasting Elections with the Gallup Likely Voter Numbers John Sides - October 30, 2012 Jay Cost took a look at how Gallup's final likely
How Hurricane Sandy Could Matter on Election Day John Sides - October 28, 2012 I'll speak to three possibilities, just for starters: 1) Sandy
In Defense of the Electoral College Joshua Tucker - October 26, 2012 Over the past few weeks, I have had the enjoyable
President Obama’s Disproportionate Battleground State Focus Started Early, Echoed Predecessors’ Actions Brendan Doherty - July 31, 2012 As President Obama prepares to make campaign stops in Ohio,
Compared to national popular vote, the electoral college favors voters in small states (on average), not large states. It’s because of those extra 2 electoral votes that each state gets! Andrew Gelman - July 31, 2012 The other day, in discussing the virtues of the electoral
Pennsylvania Turkeys Propose Thanksgiving? Joshua Tucker - September 26, 2011 We are pleased to welcome "Burt Monroe":http://polisci.la.psu.edu/facultybios/monroe.html of Penn State
Yes, it can be rational to vote. Yes, your vote could determine the outcome of the election. Maybe if 90% of well-educated, older white people do something, we shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it as “irrational.” Etc. Andrew Gelman - January 20, 2011 Seeing as the Freakonomics people were kind enough to link
Why Obama Won: Turncoat Bush Voters John Sides - March 29, 2010 This week I will have several posts discussing new research
Sotomayor nominated; would be first Hispanic on Supreme Court Andrew Gelman - May 26, 2009 Somehow this all reminds me of a hilarious Veronica Geng
How Much Did Racial Prejudice Affect the 2008 Election? John Sides - March 10, 2009 I've done a simple analysis that speaks to this question.
Nomination Politics and Turnout John Sides - January 16, 2009 Bryon Shafer and Amber Wichowsky kindly reply to my earlier
Politics of presidential nomination and selection - January 14, 2009 p. Our piece on “The Nomination and the Election: Clearing
The political penumbra of the political science of voting Andrew Gelman - January 3, 2009 A couple of months ago, my article on the probability
Miscellaneous Polisci Blog Posts John Sides - October 14, 2008 1) Seth Masket on whether this election portends a realignment.
Likely Campaign Effects in 2008 John Sides - October 6, 2008 Political scientists routinely emphasize how the "fundamentals" -- the economy,
Wolfers vs. Erikson on the Election John Sides - July 9, 2008 I've previously posted Bob Erikson and Chris Wlezien's paper arguing
Forecasting the Electoral College John Sides - March 28, 2008 Two recent analyses use current state-level polling data to forecast
GOP Veepstakes - February 26, 2008 With John McCain apparently having sewn up the Republican presidential
Should the Democratic Presidential Nominee Compete for Southern Votes? John Sides - January 21, 2008 Matt Bai seems to suggest that they should: bq. What’s
The Kenyan Electoral Mess — An Afterword That May Not Be the Final Word - January 1, 2008 The other day I speculated here that the Kenyan presidential
If You Think the U.S. Electoral System Is a Mess, Get a Load of What’s Happening Today in Kenya - December 27, 2007 Americans like to complain -- with good cause -- about