Has Trump’s approval rating really shot up to 49 percent? Probably not. Jacob Long - February 6, 2020 More Republicans — and fewer Democrats — are responding to pollsters. That could skew the results.
Yes, Germany put a far-right party in Parliament. That’s not as alarming as you might think. Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild - September 29, 2017 In last Sunday’s German elections, many observers were deeply disturbed
Most of the bounces in Trump’s approval ratings aren’t real Andrew Gelman - July 17, 2017 Donald Trump’s approval rating is one of the key news
New poll: 30% of Trump supporters say they’ll protest the election if he loses Tobias Konitzer, Sam Corbett-Davies, and David Rothschild - November 8, 2016 http://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/trump-if-we-dont-win-it-wont-mean-a-damn-thing/2016/11/07/b7d41e36-a52d-11e6-ba46-53db57f0e351_video.html After the votes are counted Tuesday night, how will
Hillary Clinton would win in Australia, New Zealand, England, Canada, France, Mexico and Germany. But not Russia. Tobias Konitzer, Sam Corbett-Davies, and David Rothschild - November 7, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49048" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton meets
Poll: 60% of Republicans believe illegal immigrants vote; 43% believe people vote using dead people’s names Tobias Konitzer, Sam Corbett-Davies, and David Rothschild - October 24, 2016 [caption id="attachment_33341" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Seth Perlman/Associated Press)[/caption] The 2016 presidential
Will Republican voters flee Trump, post-video? Here’s what we found. Tobias Konitzer, Sam Corbett-Davies, and David Rothschild - October 14, 2016 [caption id="attachment_47792" align="aligncenter" width="960"] In this 2005 frame from a
Who cares about free trade? Not many Americans, it turns out. Tobias Konitzer, Sam Corbett-Davies, and David Rothschild - July 29, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44664" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Protesters against the TPP display signs
Before you get surgery, check this evidence: Less-invasive treatments work better Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild - June 30, 2016 [caption id="attachment_43176" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (iStock)[/caption] In 2015, President Obama heavily
There is no “Trump Bump” in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild - June 7, 2016 [caption id="attachment_41764" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Getty
New polls show that more Americans prefer Democrats’ policies Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild - May 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_41151" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Blue donkey Democratic cookies and red
2016 should be winnable for Republicans. But can they win with Trump? John Sides - May 4, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39147" align="aligncenter" width="4679"] Donald Trump speaks during a rally
Will it be Clinton or Trump in November? Here’s what’s wrong with most predictions. Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild - May 3, 2016 [caption id="attachment_31666" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Jacqueline Roggenbrodt/AP)[/caption] Almost certainly, after the
We did the math. Cruz was smart to campaign in a Bronx district with almost no Republican voters. Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild - April 19, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39287" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz speaks
The prediction markets were right about Tuesday’s primaries. So what do they say about November? David Rothschild - March 17, 2016 [caption id="attachment_37371" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Voters cast their ballots at Miami
Trump is closer to what most Republicans believe than the ‘establishment’ candidates are Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild - March 6, 2016 On Super Tuesday 2016, Donald Trump continued his surprise series
No, public opinion is not driven by 'unreasoning bias and emotion' Andrew Gelman - May 28, 2015 One interesting thing about the recent scandal of the retracted
No, public opinion is not driven by ‘unreasoning bias and emotion’ Andrew Gelman - May 28, 2015 One interesting thing about the recent scandal of the retracted
Opinion polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies Neil Malhotra and David Rothschild - October 30, 2014 [caption id="attachment_17473" align="aligncenter" width="574"] In the United States, support
The mythical swing voter Andrew Gelman - August 20, 2014 David Rothschild, Sharad Goel, Doug Rivers and I write: How
What's the best way to run a survey? Joshua Tucker - August 6, 2014 [caption id="attachment_14132" align="aligncenter" width="600"] The home page of YouGov, a
What’s the best way to run a survey? Joshua Tucker - August 6, 2014 [caption id="attachment_14132" align="aligncenter" width="600"] The home page of YouGov, a
Modern polling needs innovation, not traditionalism David Rothschild and Andrew Gelman - August 4, 2014 [caption id="attachment_14007" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Catherine Walker marks her ballot in
Hey, news media! Save a few million bucks by cutting back on the horse-race polls Andrew Gelman - June 17, 2014 Nadia Hassan writes: The journal PS and Politics recently had
When should we trust polls from non-probability samples? David Rothschild and Andrew Gelman - April 11, 2014 After my post the other day on tracking public opinion
Tracking public opinion with biased polls Andrew Gelman - April 9, 2014 The traditional gold standard of polling is probability sampling, where
People Can Predict Elections (Even When Polls Can’t) John Sides - November 1, 2012 New research from David Rothschild and Justin Wolfers: bq. Most