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What’s behind the surprising far right win in the Netherlands

Erik Voeten - November 23, 2023
Wilders’ reliance on floating voters will shape his coalition and governing prospects.

There is no “Trump Bump” in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats

Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild - June 7, 2016
[caption id="attachment_41764" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Getty

Why is Donald Trump declining in the polls? The media strike again.

John Sides - September 29, 2015
[caption id="attachment_30089" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Donald Trump speaks at a press

Here’s one important way Bernie Sanders is like Sarah Palin

John Sides - July 29, 2015
[caption id="attachment_27979" align="aligncenter" width="745"] (Photos by J. Scott Applewhite and Craig Ruttle/Associated Press)[/caption]

Here's one important way Bernie Sanders is like Sarah Palin

John Sides - July 29, 2015
[caption id="attachment_27979" align="aligncenter" width="745"] (Photos by J. Scott Applewhite and Craig Ruttle/Associated Press)[/caption]

Governors to watch for 2016 and beyond: What the polls tell us

Patrick Egan - October 21, 2014
Of the 28 incumbent governors running for reelection in 2014,

Newest midterm forecasts are bullish for the GOP

Paul Gronke - October 6, 2014
There’s no more accurate way to predict the day’s weather

Election forecasting: Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang

Andrew Gelman - September 19, 2014
Paul Alper pointed me to an explanation by Nate Silver

Why the Senate forecasting models differ

John Sides - May 6, 2014
"There's not a data journalism bubble (IMO) but there's quite possibly

Tracking public opinion with biased polls

Andrew Gelman - April 9, 2014
The traditional gold standard of polling is probability sampling, where
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