Biden’s low poll numbers are exactly what we should expect
We’re back to a world in which a weak economy hurts presidential approval.
Democrats aren’t voting only on ‘electability.’ They’re just as interested in candidates’ stances on the issues.
Here’s what new research shows
The impeachment hearings haven’t changed public opinion. This explains why.
Three factors make opinion difficult to shift.
Who’s a terrorist and who’s mentally ill? We looked at 10 years of news coverage to find out.
When a perpetrator is Muslim, there’s a 488 percent greater chance an attack will be called terrorism.
Did El Paso show us that white supremacists are a serious threat? Few Republicans think so.
Republicans see the news media as a much greater threat than white supremacists.
Republicans don’t think Trump’s tweets are racist. That fits a long American history of denying racism.
Even under Jim Crow, most whites thought that blacks were treated fairly.
Congress has a record number of mothers with children at home. This is why it matters.
On Thursday, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Rosa L.
Democrats and Republicans used to agree about the n-word. Now they don’t.
Editors’ note: In this archival piece, first published on August
How election forecasts confuse Americans — and may lead them not to vote at all
[caption id="attachment_64714" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (David Goldman/AP)[/caption] Where were you on
On Instagram, Louise Linton tried to shame her ‘adorable’ critics. Here’s what Rousseau would say about her Marie Antoinette moment.
Upon disembarking a government plane in Kentucky this week, Louise
Everyone agrees that McCain is a hero. That’s exceptional in our era.
[caption id="attachment_61334" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) arrives at
Fake news might be harder to spot than most people believe
[caption id="attachment_60747" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Comet Ping Pong pizza shop in
The polls didn’t predict Trump’s win in 2016, but this technique did
[caption id="attachment_59789" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A polling station in Montana. (Justin
So is the wave of populist nationalism finished? Hardly.
[caption id="attachment_58471" align="alignleft" width="960"] French presidential candidate for the far-right
New poll: only 3% of Trump voters regret their vote
[caption id="attachment_55669" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A “Vote!” flag waves above Interstate
Are Trump’s low approval ratings ‘fake news’? I looked at the evidence.
[caption id="attachment_53907" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump speaks to members of
After a professor’s op-ed went viral, this is what happened next
[caption id="attachment_39220" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Opponents of House Bill 2 protest
Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?
[caption id="attachment_49524" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A voter casts a ballot at
How to better communicate election forecasts — in one simple chart
On Oct. 30, the Chicago Cubs were down three games
Polls may be making voters worse at predicting elections
[caption id="attachment_49060" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Voters wait in line to cast
A striking poll shows that many Trump supporters already doubted women’s claims of sexual harassment — even before the infamous tape
[caption id="attachment_47792" align="aligncenter" width="960"] In this 2005 frame from a
Only the most conservative Republicans were interested in Hillary Clinton’s email server — and only briefly
[caption id="attachment_46605" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton speaks to Pennsylvania voters
Why the U.S. needs the World Trade Organization
[caption id="attachment_46523" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A container ship loaded with U.S.
Do betting markets outperform election polls? Hardly.
[caption id="attachment_44984" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] President Harry S. Truman holds up
There is no “Trump Bump” in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats
[caption id="attachment_41764" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Getty
Do gendered comments help or hurt Hillary Clinton?
[caption id="attachment_37363" align="aligncenter" width="908"] After winning the Ohio, Florida and
Once again, Ted Cruz has an under-appreciated strength in New Hampshire
[caption id="attachment_35484" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Duane and Joyce Cate leave their
Bill O’Reilly will flee to Ireland if Sanders is elected. He’s in for a shock.
Bill O'Reilly, the host of Fox News's "The O'Reilly Factor,"
Why Asian Americans don’t vote Republican
[caption id="attachment_17892" align="aligncenter" width="460"] (Credit: AP/Matt Rourke)[/caption] During the recent
Republican activists think a strong conservative can win the White House. They’re probably wrong.
[caption id="attachment_22560" align="aligncenter" width="611"] Tea party activists at a rally
Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why.
[caption id="attachment_27976" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders speaks
Bernie Sanders's surge doesn't mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here's why.
[caption id="attachment_27976" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders speaks
Here's one important way Bernie Sanders is like Sarah Palin
[caption id="attachment_27979" align="aligncenter" width="745"] (Photos by J. Scott Applewhite and Craig Ruttle/Associated Press)[/caption]
Here’s one important way Bernie Sanders is like Sarah Palin
[caption id="attachment_27979" align="aligncenter" width="745"] (Photos by J. Scott Applewhite and Craig Ruttle/Associated Press)[/caption]
Only one poll number right now tells us anything meaningful about the 2016 election
[caption id="attachment_22939" align="aligncenter" width="908"] The current president's approval rating is
Straight talk about polling: Probability sampling can be helpful but it's no magic bullet
Mark Blumenthal and Natalie Jackson of Huffpost Pollster write: If
Straight talk about polling: Probability sampling can be helpful but it’s no magic bullet
Mark Blumenthal and Natalie Jackson of Huffpost Pollster write: If
Comment threads are messy, but so is democracy
[caption id="attachment_19279" align="alignnone" width="620"] (Kacper Pempel/Reuters)[/caption] Public opinionators don’t seem
Don't sleep on Senate endorsements
[caption id="attachment_17199" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of
Don’t sleep on Senate endorsements
[caption id="attachment_17199" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of
It's time to end anonymous comments sections
[caption id="attachment_14634" align="aligncenter" width="669"] (Steve Boneham/Creative Commons)[/caption] Despite their ubiquity
It’s time to end anonymous comments sections
[caption id="attachment_14634" align="aligncenter" width="669"] (Steve Boneham/Creative Commons)[/caption] Despite their ubiquity
Modern polling needs innovation, not traditionalism
[caption id="attachment_14007" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Catherine Walker marks her ballot in
Muslim fundamentalism in Europe… So what?
The following guest post is by Cas Mudde, assistant professor in
Ted Cruz doesn't know what the government gives him. He's not alone.
[caption id="attachment_2239" align="aligncenter" width="589" special=""] (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)[/caption] Ted Cruz obtains
Syria vs. Cyrus Redux
Readers of the blog may remember that last week as
The Real Reason We Need Declarations of War
This is a guest post by my colleague Eric Grynaviski.
Morsi was No Role Model for Islamic Democrats
The following guest post is from UT-Austin political scientist Jason
A Day in the Life of a Member of Congress
Lizza identified this member only as "a freshman Democrat in
Reason #17 to Blog about Your Research…
... because someday someone might write this about you: But
Obama on the Integrity of Science
Via Seth Masket, this from Barack Obama's speech at the
Roundtable on the 2012 Election, Featuring Ezra Klein and Nate Silver
At the upcoming meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association
Social Security Does Not Add to the Debt
This is a guest post by GW political scientist Robert
Obama’s Legacy as a Partisan
bq. Hence the basic irony inherent in the Obama presidency:
Will Merkley & Warren’s “talking filibuster” proposal work?
Last Friday, our friends at Wonkblog posted the comments of
4 Steps for Improving News Coverage of Election Polls
I am speaking on a panel this morning at the
The Most Important Ads of the Campaign Are Only Airing Now
HuffPo's Jason Linkins asks: bq. Dunno if @monkeycageblog takes requests,
The Constant Attention to Individual Polls Is Hurting America
This morning, Nate Silver tweeted: bq. Retweeting individual poll results
Vote for My SXSW Panel
I am part of a proposed panel for the 2013
Evaluating Forecasts of the Supreme Court’s Health Care Ruling
This is a guest post by my colleague Brandon Bartels.
What John Galliano Can Teach Americans about Free Speech
We are pleased to welcome back "Professor Erik Bleich":http://www.middlebury.edu/academics/ps/faculty/eb of
HP-TMC-AOL-2: a message for Arianna Huffington
Unfortunately I lost Arianna Huffington's personal email--I think it was
Me, My Post, and Arianna: Now Let’s Talk Real Synergies…
While I was away this weekend at the "Midwest Political
Who is Willing to Protest in Egypt?
Political scientists "Drew Linzer":http://userwww.service.emory.edu/~dlinzer/ and "Lisa Blaydes":http://www.stanford.edu/~blaydes/ have "another article
How Large is Egypt’s Potential “Religious Right”?
Political scientists "Drew Linzer":http://userwww.service.emory.edu/~dlinzer/ and "Lisa Blaydes":http://www.stanford.edu/~blaydes/ have "an article
Violent Threats Against a Political Scientist
As I argued in "my post last week":https://themonkeycage.org/2011/01/atmospheric_politics.html people should
Partisan turnout and election results
I just read this "post":http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/the-age-gap-and-what-it-p_b_807746.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+pollster%2Fallcontent+%28Pollster.com+All+Content%29 by Michael McDonald about turnout
Did Controversial Roll Call Votes Doom the Democrats?
Did Obama's ambitious agenda -- specifically, health care reform, the
The Gingrich Senators
bq. Political parties in the Senate are almost as polarized
Potpourri
* Nolan McCarthy, Keith Poole, Thomas Romer, and Howard Rosenthal
Final Thoughts on the America Speaks Forums
For background: the Jacobs and Page paper, my post on
The Ultimate Compliment
bq. If you like political theory, statistical analysis, complicated equations
NFL + Brain Injury Research = A Back Up Defensive Tackle
The NFL recently announced that it is giving "$1,000,000 to
Weekend Frivolity: Healthcare Meets Schoolhouse Rock
[Hat tip to "David Samuels":http://www.polisci.umn.edu/people/profile.php?UID=dsamuels and the "Huffington Post":http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/23/schoolhouse-rock-gets-bid_n_510537.html]
2010 Sri Lankan Presidential Election Preview
"Nimmi Gowrinathan":http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nimmi-gowrinathan, the Director of South Asia Programs at Operation
Who Wants to Audit the Fed?
An interesting narrative emerged last week about Ron Paul’s victory
The importance of shaping issue understanding
Time has a piece up on “How Drug-Industry Lobbyists Got
Did being bought and paid for cause economists to get it wrong?
How did economists get it so wrong? "It," of course,
Hello, Pot? This is the Kettle Calling: Iranian Edition
In the "have they no sense of shame" category, "Iranian
Partisan Bias: The Media and Scandal
Following on "John's post":https://themonkeycage.org/2009/06/partisan_bias_in_evaluations_o.html on how Republicans have taken a
Political Scientists in The Arena
As an only occasional reader of Politico, I am late
Thomas Ferguson and how to stop AIG’s bonuses
I enjoy reading Tom Ferguson. He has a nice post
PS in the (sort of) MSM
Political scientists frequently moan about the reluctance of political journalists